Gema Grahasarana (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 266.0

GEMA Stock  IDR 264.00  6.00  2.22%   
Gema Grahasarana's future price is the expected price of Gema Grahasarana instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Gema Grahasarana Tbk performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Gema Grahasarana Backtesting, Gema Grahasarana Valuation, Gema Grahasarana Correlation, Gema Grahasarana Hype Analysis, Gema Grahasarana Volatility, Gema Grahasarana History as well as Gema Grahasarana Performance.
  
Please specify Gema Grahasarana's target price for which you would like Gema Grahasarana odds to be computed.

Gema Grahasarana Target Price Odds to finish over 266.0

The tendency of Gema Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  266.00  or more in 90 days
 264.00 90 days 266.00 
about 19.63
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gema Grahasarana to move over  266.00  or more in 90 days from now is about 19.63 (This Gema Grahasarana Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Gema Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gema Grahasarana Tbk price to stay between its current price of  264.00  and  266.00  at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.26 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Gema Grahasarana Tbk has a beta of -0.34. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Gema Grahasarana are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Gema Grahasarana Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Gema Grahasarana Tbk has an alpha of 0.123, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Gema Grahasarana Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Gema Grahasarana

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gema Grahasarana Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gema Grahasarana's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
242.09246.00249.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
208.61212.52270.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
242.46246.37250.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
235.50257.20278.90
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gema Grahasarana. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gema Grahasarana's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gema Grahasarana's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gema Grahasarana Tbk.

Gema Grahasarana Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gema Grahasarana is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gema Grahasarana's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gema Grahasarana Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gema Grahasarana within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.12
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.34
σ
Overall volatility
13.79
Ir
Information ratio -0.01

Gema Grahasarana Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gema Grahasarana for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gema Grahasarana Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Gema Grahasarana Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Gema Grahasarana Tbk has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Gema Grahasarana Tbk has accumulated 98.2 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
Gema Grahasarana Tbk has accumulated about 55.14 B in cash with (4.04 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 34.47.
Roughly 79.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Gema Grahasarana Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gema Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gema Grahasarana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gema Grahasarana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.6 B
Cash And Short Term Investments67 B

Gema Grahasarana Technical Analysis

Gema Grahasarana's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gema Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gema Grahasarana Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gema Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Gema Grahasarana Predictive Forecast Models

Gema Grahasarana's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gema Grahasarana's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gema Grahasarana's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Gema Grahasarana Tbk

Checking the ongoing alerts about Gema Grahasarana for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gema Grahasarana Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Gema Grahasarana Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Gema Grahasarana Tbk has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Gema Grahasarana Tbk has accumulated 98.2 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings
Gema Grahasarana Tbk has accumulated about 55.14 B in cash with (4.04 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 34.47.
Roughly 79.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Check out Gema Grahasarana Backtesting, Gema Grahasarana Valuation, Gema Grahasarana Correlation, Gema Grahasarana Hype Analysis, Gema Grahasarana Volatility, Gema Grahasarana History as well as Gema Grahasarana Performance.
You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for Gema Stock analysis

When running Gema Grahasarana's price analysis, check to measure Gema Grahasarana's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gema Grahasarana is operating at the current time. Most of Gema Grahasarana's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gema Grahasarana's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gema Grahasarana's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gema Grahasarana to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Gema Grahasarana's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gema Grahasarana is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gema Grahasarana's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.