Guess Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.19

GES Stock  USD 31.20  0.82  2.70%   
Guess' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Guess Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Guess based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Guess Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $31.0 is a CALL option contract on Guess' common stock with a strick price of 31.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:58:04 for $0.85 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.85, and an ask price of $0.95. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 24.04. View All Guess options

Closest to current price Guess long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Guess' future price is the expected price of Guess instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Guess Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Guess Backtesting, Guess Valuation, Guess Correlation, Guess Hype Analysis, Guess Volatility, Guess History as well as Guess Performance.
  
At this time, Guess' Price Fair Value is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Please specify Guess' target price for which you would like Guess odds to be computed.

Guess Target Price Odds to finish below 13.19

The tendency of Guess Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 13.19  or more in 90 days
 31.20 90 days 13.19 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Guess to drop to $ 13.19  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Guess Inc probability density function shows the probability of Guess Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Guess Inc price to stay between $ 13.19  and its current price of $31.2 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Guess Inc has a beta of -1.03. This usually indicates Additionally Guess Inc has an alpha of 0.5241, implying that it can generate a 0.52 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Guess Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Guess

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guess Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guess' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.2331.4334.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.6625.8634.32
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
30.6733.8737.07
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
24.8427.3030.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guess. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guess' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guess' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Guess Inc.

Guess Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Guess is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Guess' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Guess Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Guess within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.52
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-1.03
σ
Overall volatility
1.95
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Guess Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Guess for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Guess Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guess Inc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Guess Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Guess, Inc. Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Guess Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Guess Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Guess' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guess' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding69.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments360.3 M
Forward Annual Dividend Rate1.2

Guess Technical Analysis

Guess' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Guess Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Guess Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Guess Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Guess Predictive Forecast Models

Guess' time-series forecasting models is one of many Guess' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Guess' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Guess Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Guess for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Guess Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Guess Inc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Guess Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Guess, Inc. Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
When determining whether Guess Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Guess' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Guess' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Guess Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Guess Backtesting, Guess Valuation, Guess Correlation, Guess Hype Analysis, Guess Volatility, Guess History as well as Guess Performance.
Note that the Guess Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guess' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for Guess Stock analysis

When running Guess' price analysis, check to measure Guess' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guess is operating at the current time. Most of Guess' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guess' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guess' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guess to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Guess' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guess. If investors know Guess will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guess listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.198
Dividend Share
1.125
Earnings Share
2.68
Revenue Per Share
52.064
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.09
The market value of Guess Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guess that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guess' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guess' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guess' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guess' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guess' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guess is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guess' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.