Gevo Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.16

GEVO Stock  USD 0.77  0.04  5.48%   
Gevo's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Gevo Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Gevo based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Gevo Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $1.0 is a CALL option contract on Gevo's common stock with a strick price of 1.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 10:33:23 for $0.05 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.05. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 160.99. View All Gevo options

Closest to current price Gevo long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Gevo's future price is the expected price of Gevo instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Gevo Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Gevo Backtesting, Gevo Valuation, Gevo Correlation, Gevo Hype Analysis, Gevo Volatility, Gevo History as well as Gevo Performance.
  
As of the 29th of March 2024, Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to 0.09, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop (4.39). Please specify Gevo's target price for which you would like Gevo odds to be computed.

Gevo Target Price Odds to finish below 3.16

The tendency of Gevo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 3.16  after 90 days
 0.77 90 days 3.16 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Gevo to stay under $ 3.16  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Gevo Inc probability density function shows the probability of Gevo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Gevo Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 0.77  and $ 3.16  at the end of the 90-day period is about 77.34 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 5.78 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Gevo will likely underperform. Additionally Gevo Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Gevo Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Gevo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gevo Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gevo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.040.786.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.051.016.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.020.786.16
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.641.802.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gevo. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gevo's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gevo's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gevo Inc.

Gevo Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Gevo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Gevo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Gevo Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Gevo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-1.24
β
Beta against NYSE Composite5.78
σ
Overall volatility
0.16
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Gevo Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Gevo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Gevo Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Gevo Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Gevo Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Gevo Inc has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 17.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (66.22 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (22.18 M).
Gevo Inc currently holds about 422.58 M in cash with (53.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.82, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Gevo Inc has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Down -28.22 percent in 4 Weeks, Heres Why You Should You Buy the Dip in Gevo

Gevo Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Gevo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Gevo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gevo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding238.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments375.6 M

Gevo Technical Analysis

Gevo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Gevo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Gevo Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Gevo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Gevo Predictive Forecast Models

Gevo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Gevo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Gevo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Gevo Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Gevo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Gevo Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Gevo Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Gevo Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Gevo Inc has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 17.2 M. Net Loss for the year was (66.22 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (22.18 M).
Gevo Inc currently holds about 422.58 M in cash with (53.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.82, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Gevo Inc has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Down -28.22 percent in 4 Weeks, Heres Why You Should You Buy the Dip in Gevo
When determining whether Gevo Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Gevo's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Gevo Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Gevo Inc Stock:
Check out Gevo Backtesting, Gevo Valuation, Gevo Correlation, Gevo Hype Analysis, Gevo Volatility, Gevo History as well as Gevo Performance.
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Complementary Tools for Gevo Stock analysis

When running Gevo's price analysis, check to measure Gevo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gevo is operating at the current time. Most of Gevo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gevo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gevo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gevo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Gevo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gevo. If investors know Gevo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gevo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.28)
Revenue Per Share
0.072
Quarterly Revenue Growth
7.026
Return On Assets
(0.08)
Return On Equity
(0.11)
The market value of Gevo Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gevo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gevo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gevo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gevo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gevo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gevo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gevo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gevo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.