Galapagos Nv Adr Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 210.660625

GLPG Stock  USD 32.95  0.24  0.73%   
Galapagos' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Galapagos NV ADR. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Galapagos based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Galapagos NV ADR over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $32.5 is a CALL option contract on Galapagos' common stock with a strick price of 32.5 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-21 at 14:04:35 for $2.85 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.55, and an ask price of $2.7. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 41.57. View All Galapagos options

Closest to current price Galapagos long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Galapagos' future price is the expected price of Galapagos instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Galapagos NV ADR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Galapagos Backtesting, Galapagos Valuation, Galapagos Correlation, Galapagos Hype Analysis, Galapagos Volatility, Galapagos History as well as Galapagos Performance.
  
The Galapagos' current Price Earnings Ratio is estimated to increase to 12.03, while Price To Sales Ratio is projected to decrease to 8.65. Please specify Galapagos' target price for which you would like Galapagos odds to be computed.

Galapagos Target Price Odds to finish below 210.660625

The tendency of Galapagos Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 210.66  after 90 days
 32.95 90 days 210.66 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Galapagos to stay under $ 210.66  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Galapagos NV ADR probability density function shows the probability of Galapagos Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Galapagos NV ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 32.95  and $ 210.66  at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.6 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Galapagos has a beta of 0.78. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Galapagos average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Galapagos NV ADR will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Galapagos NV ADR has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Galapagos Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Galapagos

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Galapagos NV ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Galapagos' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.4933.1734.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
29.6641.1042.78
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
32.6234.3035.98
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
42.6746.8952.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Galapagos. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Galapagos' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Galapagos' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Galapagos NV ADR.

Galapagos Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Galapagos is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Galapagos' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Galapagos NV ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Galapagos within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.36
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.78
σ
Overall volatility
2.69
Ir
Information ratio -0.23

Galapagos Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Galapagos for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Galapagos NV ADR can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Galapagos NV ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Galapagos NV ADR currently holds about 4.43 B in cash with (518.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 67.38, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Galapagos NV ADR has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from zacks.com: Praxis Surges on Positive Epilepsy Study Results

Galapagos Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Galapagos Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Galapagos' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Galapagos' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding66 M

Galapagos Technical Analysis

Galapagos' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Galapagos Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Galapagos NV ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Galapagos Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Galapagos Predictive Forecast Models

Galapagos' time-series forecasting models is one of many Galapagos' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Galapagos' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Galapagos NV ADR

Checking the ongoing alerts about Galapagos for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Galapagos NV ADR help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Galapagos NV ADR generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Galapagos NV ADR currently holds about 4.43 B in cash with (518.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 67.38, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Galapagos NV ADR has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from zacks.com: Praxis Surges on Positive Epilepsy Study Results
When determining whether Galapagos NV ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Galapagos' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Galapagos' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Galapagos Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Galapagos Backtesting, Galapagos Valuation, Galapagos Correlation, Galapagos Hype Analysis, Galapagos Volatility, Galapagos History as well as Galapagos Performance.
You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

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When running Galapagos' price analysis, check to measure Galapagos' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Galapagos is operating at the current time. Most of Galapagos' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Galapagos' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Galapagos' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Galapagos to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Galapagos' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Galapagos. If investors know Galapagos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Galapagos listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.19
Earnings Share
(2.54)
Revenue Per Share
0.1818
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Galapagos NV ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Galapagos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Galapagos' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Galapagos' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Galapagos' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Galapagos' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Galapagos' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Galapagos is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Galapagos' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.