Alphabet Probability of Target Price

Alphabet Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 974.36  13.84  1.4%

Alphabet probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alphabet Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alphabet time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alphabet odds to be computed. Please also check Alphabet Backtesting, Alphabet Valuation, Alphabet Correlation, Alphabet Hype Analysis, Alphabet Volatility, Alphabet History as well as Alphabet Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 974.36 30 days 974.36  about 35.47% about 64.12%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alphabet to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 35.47%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Alphabet has beta of 0.6982 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Alphabet average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alphabet Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alphabet Inc has an alpha of 0.12958335966363632 implying that it can potentially generate 0.12958335966363632% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
35.0%
Odds to move above current price in 30 days
 Alphabet Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.13
βBeta against DOW=0.7
σ
Overall volatility
=24.2
 IrInformation ratio =0.088014