Alphabet Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 1085.11

GOOG -- USA Stock  

USD 1,170  1.06  0.09%

Alphabet probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alphabet performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alphabet time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alphabet odds to be computed. Please also check Alphabet Backtesting, Alphabet Valuation, Alphabet Correlation, Alphabet Hype Analysis, Alphabet Volatility, Alphabet History as well as Alphabet Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alphabet Target Price Odds to finish below 1085.11

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 1,085  or more in 30 days
 1,170 30 days 1,085  NEAR 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alphabet to drop to $ 1,085  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Alphabet probability density function shows the probability of Alphabet Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alphabet price to stay between $ 1,085  and its current price of $1169.73 at the end of the 30-day period is about 19.61%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Alphabet has beta of 0.718 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Alphabet average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alphabet will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alphabet has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Alphabet Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.19
β
Beta against DOW=0.72
σ
Overall volatility
=28.35
Ir
Information ratio =0.22

Alphabet Alerts

Alphabet Alerts and Suggestions

Alphabet generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Alphabet has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: New US-Mexico Trade Deal Lifts Stocks Investor Sentiment

Price Density Drivers

Alphabet Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out0.30%
Float Shares603.56M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.21M
Shares Short Prior Month2.88M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.4M
Date Short InterestAugust 31, 2018
Please also check Alphabet Backtesting, Alphabet Valuation, Alphabet Correlation, Alphabet Hype Analysis, Alphabet Volatility, Alphabet History as well as Alphabet Performance. Please also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine historical correlation between any two equity instruments.
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