Alphabet Probability of Target Price

Alphabet probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alphabet Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alphabet time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alphabet odds to be computed. Please also check Alphabet Backtesting, Alphabet Valuation, Alphabet Correlation, Alphabet Hype Analysis, Alphabet Volatility, Alphabet History as well as Alphabet Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 971.47 30 days 807.91  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alphabet to drop to $ 807.91  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of Alphabet Inc price to stay between $ 807.91  and its current price of $971.47 at the end of the 30-day period is about 97.0%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.1982 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Alphabet will likely underperform. Additionally Alphabet Inc has an alpha of 0.4609 implying that it can potentially generate 0.4609% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
< 1%
Odds to drop to $ 807.91  or more in 30 days
 Alphabet Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.46 
βBeta against DOW= 1.20 
σ
Overall volatility
= 20.56 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.44