Holcim Stock Chance of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 47.59

HCMLF Stock  USD 89.88  0.77  0.86%   
Holcim's future price is the expected price of Holcim instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Holcim performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Holcim Backtesting, Holcim Valuation, Holcim Correlation, Holcim Hype Analysis, Holcim Volatility, Holcim History as well as Holcim Performance.
  
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Holcim Target Price Odds to finish over 47.59

The tendency of Holcim Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 47.59  in 90 days
 89.88 90 days 47.59 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Holcim to stay above $ 47.59  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Holcim probability density function shows the probability of Holcim Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Holcim price to stay between $ 47.59  and its current price of $89.88 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Holcim has a beta of -0.56. This usually indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Holcim are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Holcim is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Holcim has an alpha of 0.3155, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Holcim Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Holcim

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Holcim. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Holcim's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
87.9689.8891.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
70.3472.2698.87
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
87.4389.3591.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
88.1390.1992.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Holcim. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Holcim's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Holcim's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Holcim.

Holcim Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Holcim is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Holcim's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Holcim, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Holcim within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.32
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.56
σ
Overall volatility
4.93
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Holcim Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Holcim Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Holcim's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Holcim's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding608 M

Holcim Technical Analysis

Holcim's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Holcim Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Holcim. In general, you should focus on analyzing Holcim Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Holcim Predictive Forecast Models

Holcim's time-series forecasting models is one of many Holcim's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Holcim's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Holcim in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Holcim's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Holcim options trading.
Check out Holcim Backtesting, Holcim Valuation, Holcim Correlation, Holcim Hype Analysis, Holcim Volatility, Holcim History as well as Holcim Performance.
You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Complementary Tools for Holcim Pink Sheet analysis

When running Holcim's price analysis, check to measure Holcim's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Holcim is operating at the current time. Most of Holcim's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Holcim's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Holcim's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Holcim to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Holcim's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Holcim is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Holcim's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.