Lafargeholcim Ltd Adr Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 11.33
| HCMLY Stock | USD 17.11 0.05 0.29% |
Lafargeholcim |
Lafargeholcim Target Price Odds to finish below 11.33
The tendency of Lafargeholcim Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.33 or more in 90 days |
| 17.11 | 90 days | 11.33 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lafargeholcim to drop to $ 11.33 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Lafargeholcim Ltd ADR probability density function shows the probability of Lafargeholcim Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lafargeholcim ADR price to stay between $ 11.33 and its current price of $17.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.92 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the pink sheet has the beta coefficient of 1.13 . This usually indicates Lafargeholcim Ltd ADR market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Lafargeholcim is expected to follow. Additionally Lafargeholcim Ltd ADR has an alpha of 0.1743, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Lafargeholcim Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lafargeholcim
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lafargeholcim ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lafargeholcim's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lafargeholcim Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lafargeholcim is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lafargeholcim's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lafargeholcim Ltd ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lafargeholcim within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Lafargeholcim Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lafargeholcim Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lafargeholcim's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lafargeholcim's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.7 B |
Lafargeholcim Technical Analysis
Lafargeholcim's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lafargeholcim Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lafargeholcim Ltd ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lafargeholcim Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lafargeholcim Predictive Forecast Models
Lafargeholcim's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lafargeholcim's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lafargeholcim's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lafargeholcim in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lafargeholcim's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lafargeholcim options trading.
Check out Lafargeholcim Backtesting, Lafargeholcim Valuation, Lafargeholcim Correlation, Lafargeholcim Hype Analysis, Lafargeholcim Volatility, Lafargeholcim History as well as Lafargeholcim Performance. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Complementary Tools for Lafargeholcim Pink Sheet analysis
When running Lafargeholcim's price analysis, check to measure Lafargeholcim's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lafargeholcim is operating at the current time. Most of Lafargeholcim's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lafargeholcim's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lafargeholcim's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lafargeholcim to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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