Home Depot Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 153.82

The Home Depot Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 195.87  0.55  0.28%

Home Depot probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of The Home Depot Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Home Depot time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Home Depot odds to be computed. Please also check Home Depot Backtesting, Home Depot Valuation, Home Depot Correlation, Home Depot Hype Analysis, Home Depot Volatility, Home Depot History as well as Home Depot Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Home Depot Target Price Odds to finish below 153.82

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 195.87 30 days 153.82  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Home Depot to drop to $ 153.82  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of The Home Depot price to stay between $ 153.82  and its current price of $195.87 at the end of the 30-day period is roughly 96.0%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Home Depot has beta of 0.8819 . This indicates The Home Depot Inc market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Home Depot is expected to follow. Additionally The Home Depot Inc has an alpha of 0.14510511696363637 implying that it can potentially generate 0.14510511696363637% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
< 1%
Odds to drop to $ 153.82  or more in 30 days
 Home Depot Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.15
β
Beta against DOW=0.88
σ
Overall volatility
=4.06
Ir
Information ratio =0.19