Home Depot Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 153.82

The Home Depot Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 167.5  0.24  0.14%

Home Depot probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of The Home Depot Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Home Depot time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Home Depot odds to be computed. Please also check Home Depot Backtesting, Home Depot Valuation, Home Depot Correlation, Home Depot Hype Analysis, Home Depot Volatility, Home Depot History as well as Home Depot Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Home Depot Target Price Odds to finish below 153.82

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 167.5 30 days 153.82  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Home Depot to drop to $ 153.82  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of The Home Depot price to stay between $ 153.82  and its current price of $167.5 at the end of the 30-day period is about 91.55%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Home Depot has beta of 0.74 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Home Depot average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding The Home Depot Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The Home Depot Inc has an alpha of 0.09571934636363637 implying that it can potentially generate 0.09571934636363637% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
< 1%
Odds to drop to $ 153.82  or more in 30 days
 Home Depot Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.095719
βBeta against DOW=0.74
σ
Overall volatility
=1.63
 IrInformation ratio =0.1