Virtus Emerging Markets Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 10.26

HEMZX Fund  USD 6.94  0.02  0.29%   
Virtus Emerging's future price is the expected price of Virtus Emerging instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Virtus Emerging Markets performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Virtus Emerging Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Virtus Emerging Correlation, Virtus Emerging Hype Analysis, Virtus Emerging Volatility, Virtus Emerging History as well as Virtus Emerging Performance.
  
Please specify Virtus Emerging's target price for which you would like Virtus Emerging odds to be computed.

Virtus Emerging Target Price Odds to finish below 10.26

The tendency of Virtus Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 10.26  after 90 days
 6.94 90 days 10.26 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Virtus Emerging to stay under $ 10.26  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Virtus Emerging Markets probability density function shows the probability of Virtus Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Virtus Emerging Markets price to stay between its current price of $ 6.94  and $ 10.26  at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.13 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Virtus Emerging has a beta of 0.0318. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Virtus Emerging average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Virtus Emerging Markets will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Virtus Emerging Markets has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Virtus Emerging Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Virtus Emerging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus Emerging Markets. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virtus Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.056.947.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.916.807.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
6.056.947.82
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.916.936.95
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Virtus Emerging. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Virtus Emerging's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Virtus Emerging's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Virtus Emerging Markets.

Virtus Emerging Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Virtus Emerging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Virtus Emerging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Virtus Emerging Markets, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Virtus Emerging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.03
σ
Overall volatility
0.12
Ir
Information ratio -0.22

Virtus Emerging Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Virtus Emerging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Virtus Emerging Markets can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Virtus Emerging generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Virtus Emerging Markets generated five year return of -4.0%
This fund retains 98.52% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Virtus Emerging Technical Analysis

Virtus Emerging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Virtus Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Virtus Emerging Markets. In general, you should focus on analyzing Virtus Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Virtus Emerging Predictive Forecast Models

Virtus Emerging's time-series forecasting models is one of many Virtus Emerging's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Virtus Emerging's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Virtus Emerging Markets

Checking the ongoing alerts about Virtus Emerging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Virtus Emerging Markets help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Virtus Emerging generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Virtus Emerging Markets generated five year return of -4.0%
This fund retains 98.52% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
Check out Virtus Emerging Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Virtus Emerging Correlation, Virtus Emerging Hype Analysis, Virtus Emerging Volatility, Virtus Emerging History as well as Virtus Emerging Performance.
Note that the Virtus Emerging Markets information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Virtus Emerging's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for Virtus Mutual Fund analysis

When running Virtus Emerging's price analysis, check to measure Virtus Emerging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Virtus Emerging is operating at the current time. Most of Virtus Emerging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Virtus Emerging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Virtus Emerging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Virtus Emerging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Economic Indicators
Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
USA ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virtus Emerging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virtus Emerging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virtus Emerging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.