Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.16
| IRWD Stock | USD 8.10 0.21 2.53% |
Closest to current price Ironwood long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Ironwood |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 20.16
The tendency of Ironwood Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 20.16 after 90 days |
| 8.10 | 90 days | 20.16 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals to stay under $ 20.16 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ironwood Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Ironwood Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals price to stay between its current price of $ 8.10 and $ 20.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 83.02 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has a beta of 0.48. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ironwood Pharmaceuticals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ironwood Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.52 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ironwood Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 442.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (1 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 366.33 M. | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: SAPs Q1 Earnings and Revenues Rise YY on Cloud Strength |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ironwood Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 155.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 92.2 M |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ironwood Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ironwood Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ironwood Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ironwood Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ironwood Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 442.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (1 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 366.33 M. | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: SAPs Q1 Earnings and Revenues Rise YY on Cloud Strength |
Check out Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Valuation, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Correlation, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Volatility, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals History as well as Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Performance. For information on how to trade Ironwood Stock refer to our How to Trade Ironwood Stock guide.You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Complementary Tools for Ironwood Stock analysis
When running Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Ironwood will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ironwood Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Earnings Share (6.45) | Revenue Per Share 2.848 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.097 | Return On Assets 0.1339 |
The market value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ironwood that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.