Gartner Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 122.39

Gartner -- USA Stock  

USD 117.72  0.15  0.13%

Gartner probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Gartner performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Gartner time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Gartner odds to be computed. Please also check Gartner Backtesting, Gartner Valuation, Gartner Correlation, Gartner Hype Analysis, Gartner Volatility, Gartner History as well as Gartner Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Gartner Target Price Odds to finish below 122.39

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 117.72 30 days 122.39  about 11.2% about 88.59%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Gartner to stay under $ 122.39  after 30 days from now is about 88.59% (This Gartner probability density function shows the probability of Gartner Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Gartner price to stay between its current price of $ 117.72  and $ 122.39  at the end of the 30-day period is about 50.37%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Gartner has beta of 0.0181 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Gartner average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Gartner will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Gartner has an alpha of 0.03638368578636363 implying that it can potentially generate 0.03638368578636363% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
89.0%
Odds to stay under $ 122.39  after 30 days
 Gartner Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.036384
β
Beta against DOW=0.0181
σ
Overall volatility
=3.09
Ir
Information ratio =0.07079

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