KBC Groep (Belgium) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 59.26

KBC Stock  EUR 69.42  0.06  0.09%   
KBC Groep's future price is the expected price of KBC Groep instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of KBC Groep NV performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out KBC Groep Backtesting, KBC Groep Valuation, KBC Groep Correlation, KBC Groep Hype Analysis, KBC Groep Volatility, KBC Groep History as well as KBC Groep Performance.
  
Please specify KBC Groep's target price for which you would like KBC Groep odds to be computed.

KBC Groep Target Price Odds to finish below 59.26

The tendency of KBC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 59.26  or more in 90 days
 69.42 90 days 59.26 
about 16.93
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of KBC Groep to drop to € 59.26  or more in 90 days from now is about 16.93 (This KBC Groep NV probability density function shows the probability of KBC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of KBC Groep NV price to stay between € 59.26  and its current price of €69.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 77.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon KBC Groep has a beta of 0.43. This indicates as returns on the market go up, KBC Groep average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding KBC Groep NV will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally KBC Groep NV has an alpha of 0.2033, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   KBC Groep Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for KBC Groep

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KBC Groep NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KBC Groep's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
68.0269.4270.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
62.4874.8376.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as KBC Groep. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against KBC Groep's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, KBC Groep's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in KBC Groep NV.

KBC Groep Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. KBC Groep is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the KBC Groep's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KBC Groep NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of KBC Groep within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.20
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.43
σ
Overall volatility
3.94
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

KBC Groep Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of KBC Groep for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for KBC Groep NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

KBC Groep Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of KBC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential KBC Groep's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. KBC Groep's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding417.2 M

KBC Groep Technical Analysis

KBC Groep's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. KBC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KBC Groep NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing KBC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

KBC Groep Predictive Forecast Models

KBC Groep's time-series forecasting models is one of many KBC Groep's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary KBC Groep's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about KBC Groep NV

Checking the ongoing alerts about KBC Groep for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for KBC Groep NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 33.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Check out KBC Groep Backtesting, KBC Groep Valuation, KBC Groep Correlation, KBC Groep Hype Analysis, KBC Groep Volatility, KBC Groep History as well as KBC Groep Performance.
Note that the KBC Groep NV information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other KBC Groep's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for KBC Stock analysis

When running KBC Groep's price analysis, check to measure KBC Groep's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KBC Groep is operating at the current time. Most of KBC Groep's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KBC Groep's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KBC Groep's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KBC Groep to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges
Investing Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Please note, there is a significant difference between KBC Groep's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KBC Groep is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KBC Groep's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.