Koc Holding (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.13

KCHOL Stock  TRY 191.00  3.20  1.65%   
Koc Holding's future price is the expected price of Koc Holding instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Koc Holding AS performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Koc Holding Backtesting, Koc Holding Valuation, Koc Holding Correlation, Koc Holding Hype Analysis, Koc Holding Volatility, Koc Holding History as well as Koc Holding Performance.
  
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Koc Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 17.13

The tendency of Koc Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  17.13  or more in 90 days
 191.00 90 days 17.13 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Koc Holding to drop to  17.13  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Koc Holding AS probability density function shows the probability of Koc Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Koc Holding AS price to stay between  17.13  and its current price of 191.0 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Koc Holding AS has a beta of -0.18. This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Koc Holding are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Koc Holding AS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Koc Holding AS has an alpha of 0.5289, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Koc Holding Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Koc Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Koc Holding AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Koc Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
192.32194.20196.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
155.55157.43213.62
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
203.99205.87207.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
193.10195.23197.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Koc Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Koc Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Koc Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Koc Holding AS.

Koc Holding Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Koc Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Koc Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Koc Holding AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Koc Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.53
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.18
σ
Overall volatility
15.04
Ir
Information ratio 0.20

Koc Holding Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Koc Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Koc Holding AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Koc Holding AS has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 57.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Koc Holding Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Koc Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Koc Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Koc Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.5 B

Koc Holding Technical Analysis

Koc Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Koc Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Koc Holding AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Koc Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Koc Holding Predictive Forecast Models

Koc Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Koc Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Koc Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Koc Holding AS

Checking the ongoing alerts about Koc Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Koc Holding AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Koc Holding AS has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 57.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Check out Koc Holding Backtesting, Koc Holding Valuation, Koc Holding Correlation, Koc Holding Hype Analysis, Koc Holding Volatility, Koc Holding History as well as Koc Holding Performance.
You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

Complementary Tools for Koc Stock analysis

When running Koc Holding's price analysis, check to measure Koc Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Koc Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Koc Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Koc Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Koc Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Koc Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Koc Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Koc Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Koc Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.