LUNDIN PETROL (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 26.89

LYV Stock  EUR 0.62  0.00  0.00%   
LUNDIN PETROL's future price is the expected price of LUNDIN PETROL instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of LUNDIN PETROL performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out LUNDIN PETROL Backtesting, LUNDIN PETROL Valuation, LUNDIN PETROL Correlation, LUNDIN PETROL Hype Analysis, LUNDIN PETROL Volatility, LUNDIN PETROL History as well as LUNDIN PETROL Performance.
  
Please specify LUNDIN PETROL's target price for which you would like LUNDIN PETROL odds to be computed.

LUNDIN PETROL Target Price Odds to finish below 26.89

The tendency of LUNDIN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under € 26.89  after 90 days
 0.62 90 days 26.89 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LUNDIN PETROL to stay under € 26.89  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This LUNDIN PETROL probability density function shows the probability of LUNDIN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LUNDIN PETROL price to stay between its current price of € 0.62  and € 26.89  at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon LUNDIN PETROL has a beta of -0.82. This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding LUNDIN PETROL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, LUNDIN PETROL is likely to outperform the market. Additionally LUNDIN PETROL has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   LUNDIN PETROL Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for LUNDIN PETROL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LUNDIN PETROL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LUNDIN PETROL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.623.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.030.513.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as LUNDIN PETROL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against LUNDIN PETROL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, LUNDIN PETROL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in LUNDIN PETROL.

LUNDIN PETROL Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LUNDIN PETROL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LUNDIN PETROL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LUNDIN PETROL, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LUNDIN PETROL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.14
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.82
σ
Overall volatility
0.05
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

LUNDIN PETROL Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LUNDIN PETROL for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LUNDIN PETROL can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
LUNDIN PETROL generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
LUNDIN PETROL has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock

LUNDIN PETROL Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LUNDIN Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LUNDIN PETROL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LUNDIN PETROL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding284.6 M
Dividends Paid-455 M

LUNDIN PETROL Technical Analysis

LUNDIN PETROL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LUNDIN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LUNDIN PETROL. In general, you should focus on analyzing LUNDIN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

LUNDIN PETROL Predictive Forecast Models

LUNDIN PETROL's time-series forecasting models is one of many LUNDIN PETROL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LUNDIN PETROL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about LUNDIN PETROL

Checking the ongoing alerts about LUNDIN PETROL for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LUNDIN PETROL help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
LUNDIN PETROL generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
LUNDIN PETROL has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Check out LUNDIN PETROL Backtesting, LUNDIN PETROL Valuation, LUNDIN PETROL Correlation, LUNDIN PETROL Hype Analysis, LUNDIN PETROL Volatility, LUNDIN PETROL History as well as LUNDIN PETROL Performance.
You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for LUNDIN Stock analysis

When running LUNDIN PETROL's price analysis, check to measure LUNDIN PETROL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LUNDIN PETROL is operating at the current time. Most of LUNDIN PETROL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LUNDIN PETROL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LUNDIN PETROL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LUNDIN PETROL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between LUNDIN PETROL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LUNDIN PETROL is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LUNDIN PETROL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.