Macys Probability of Target Price

Macys Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 19.75  0.14  0.7%

Macys probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Macys Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Macys time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Macys odds to be computed. Please see also Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 19.75 30 days 19.75  about 97.0% roughly 2.57%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Macys to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 97.0%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Macys Inc has beta of -1.0358 indicating Additionally Macys Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
97.0%
Odds to move above current price in 30 days
 Macys Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=(0.44) 
βBeta against DOW=(1.04) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 0.75 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.45)