Macys Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 25.28

Macys Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 26.74  0.57  2.18%

Macys probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Macys Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Macys time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Macys odds to be computed. Please see also Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Macys Target Price Odds to finish below 25.28

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 26.74 30 days 25.28  about 61.2% about 38.54%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Macys to drop to $ 25.28  or more in 30 days from now is about 38.54%. Probability of Macys Inc price to stay between $ 25.28  and its current price of $26.74 at the end of the 30-day period is about 44.67%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Macys Inc has beta of -0.2301 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Macys are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Macys Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Macys Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
39.0%
Odds to drop to $ 25.28  or more in 30 days
 Macys Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.12
β
Beta against DOW=0.23
σ
Overall volatility
=1.16
Ir
Information ratio =0.061707