Macys Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 25.28

Macys Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 25.89  0.09  0.35%

Macys probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Macys Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Macys time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Macys odds to be computed. Please see also Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Macys Target Price Odds to finish below 25.28

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 25.89 30 days 25.28  about 11.01% about 88.92%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Macys to drop to $ 25.28  or more in 30 days from now is about 88.92%. Probability of Macys Inc price to stay between $ 25.28  and its current price of $25.89 at the end of the 30-day period is nearly 4.02%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Macys has beta of 0.8915 indicating Macys Inc market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Macys is expected to follow. Moreover Macys Inc has an alpha of 1.1699392610681816 implying that it can potentially generate 1.1699392610681816% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
89.0%
Odds to drop to $ 25.28  or more in 30 days
 Macys Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=1.17
βBeta against DOW=0.89
σ
Overall volatility
=2.44
 IrInformation ratio =0.44