Macys Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 25.28

M -- USA Stock  

USD 31.69  0.68  2.10%

Macys probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Macys performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Macys time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Macys odds to be computed. Please see also Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Macys Target Price Odds to finish below 25.28

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 25.28  or more in 30 days
 31.69 30 days 25.28  NEAR 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Macys to drop to $ 25.28  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Macys probability density function shows the probability of Macys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Macys price to stay between $ 25.28  and its current price of $31.69 at the end of the 30-day period is about 11.51%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Macys has beta of 0.9063 indicating Macys market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Macys is expected to follow. Additionally Macys has an alpha of 0.1126 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1126% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Macys Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.11
β
Beta against DOW=0.91
σ
Overall volatility
=1.73
Ir
Information ratio =0.047204

Macys Alerts

Macys Alerts and Suggestions

Macys generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Macys has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its interest payments
Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Price Density Drivers

Macys Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out13.57%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.51
Short Percent Of Float15.39%
Float Shares306.38M
Shares Short Prior Month41.54M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day7.36M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month7.8M
Date Short InterestOctober 31, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.66%
Please see also Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance. Please also try Cryptocurrency Arbitrage module to find pairs of digital assets on multiple exchanges that are traded at a risk free arbitrage.
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