Macys Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 28.92

M -- USA Stock  

USD 30.61  0.19  0.62%

Macys probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Macys performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Macys time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Macys odds to be computed. Please see also Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Macys Target Price Odds to finish below 28.92

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 28.92  or more in 30 days
 30.61 30 days 28.92  NEAR 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Macys to drop to $ 28.92  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Macys probability density function shows the probability of Macys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Macys price to stay between $ 28.92  and its current price of $30.61 at the end of the 30-day period is about 5.02%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Macys has beta of 0.9168 indicating Macys market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Macys is expected to follow. Additionally Macys has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Macys Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.06
β
Beta against DOW=0.92
σ
Overall volatility
=1.89
Ir
Information ratio =0.02

Macys Alerts

Macys Alerts and Suggestions

Macys generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Macys has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its interest payments
Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Price Density Drivers

Macys Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out12.77%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.51
Short Percent Of Float14.48%
Float Shares306.65M
Shares Short Prior Month44M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.99M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month7.82M
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.74%
Please see also Macys Backtesting, Macys Valuation, Macys Correlation, Macys Hype Analysis, Macys Volatility, Macys History as well as Macys Performance. Please also try ETF Directory module to find actively-traded exchange traded funds (etf) from around the world.
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