Mercantil (Brazil) Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Under 6.0
| MERC4 Preferred Stock | BRL 7.71 0.00 0.00% |
Mercantil |
Mercantil Target Price Odds to finish below 6.0
The tendency of Mercantil Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 6.00 or more in 90 days |
| 7.71 | 90 days | 6.00 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mercantil to drop to R$ 6.00 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Mercantil do Brasil probability density function shows the probability of Mercantil Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mercantil do Brasil price to stay between R$ 6.00 and its current price of R$7.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mercantil has a beta of 0.12. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mercantil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mercantil do Brasil will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mercantil do Brasil has an alpha of 0.0193, implying that it can generate a 0.0193 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Mercantil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mercantil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercantil do Brasil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercantil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercantil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mercantil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mercantil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mercantil do Brasil, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mercantil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0076 |
Mercantil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mercantil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mercantil do Brasil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mercantil do Brasil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mercantil do Brasil has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Mercantil do Brasil has accumulated about 12.06 M in cash with (30.95 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.67. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Mercantil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mercantil Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mercantil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercantil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -3.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.8 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.91 | |
| Shares Float | 2.5 M |
Mercantil Technical Analysis
Mercantil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mercantil Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mercantil do Brasil. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mercantil Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mercantil Predictive Forecast Models
Mercantil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mercantil's preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mercantil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mercantil do Brasil
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mercantil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mercantil do Brasil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mercantil do Brasil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mercantil do Brasil has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Mercantil do Brasil has accumulated about 12.06 M in cash with (30.95 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.67. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Mercantil Backtesting, Mercantil Valuation, Mercantil Correlation, Mercantil Hype Analysis, Mercantil Volatility, Mercantil History as well as Mercantil Performance. Note that the Mercantil do Brasil information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Mercantil's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Mercantil Preferred Stock analysis
When running Mercantil's price analysis, check to measure Mercantil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercantil is operating at the current time. Most of Mercantil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercantil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercantil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercantil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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