Merck Tbk (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6600.0
| MERK Stock | IDR 3,980 20.00 0.50% |
Merck |
Merck Tbk Target Price Odds to finish over 6600.0
The tendency of Merck Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 6,600 or more in 90 days |
| 3,980 | 90 days | 6,600 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merck Tbk to move over 6,600 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Merck Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Merck Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merck Tbk price to stay between its current price of 3,980 and 6,600 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.84 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Merck Tbk has a beta of -0.44. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Merck Tbk are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Merck Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Merck Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Merck Tbk Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Merck Tbk
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck Tbk's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Merck Tbk Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merck Tbk is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merck Tbk's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merck Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merck Tbk within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 98.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Merck Tbk Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merck Tbk for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merck Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Merck Tbk is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Merck Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Merck Tbk Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merck Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merck Tbk's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merck Tbk's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 448 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 196.3 B |
Merck Tbk Technical Analysis
Merck Tbk's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merck Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merck Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merck Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Merck Tbk Predictive Forecast Models
Merck Tbk's time-series forecasting models is one of many Merck Tbk's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merck Tbk's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Merck Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Merck Tbk for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merck Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Merck Tbk is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Merck Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Merck Stock analysis
When running Merck Tbk's price analysis, check to measure Merck Tbk's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck Tbk is operating at the current time. Most of Merck Tbk's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck Tbk's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck Tbk's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck Tbk to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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