MetLife Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 54.47625

MetLife Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 52.55  0.7  1.35%

MetLife probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of MetLife Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify MetLife time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like MetLife odds to be computed. Please see also MetLife Backtesting, MetLife Valuation, MetLife Correlation, MetLife Hype Analysis, MetLife Volatility, MetLife History as well as MetLife Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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MetLife Target Price Odds to finish below 54.47625

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 52.55 30 days 54.48  near 1% close to 100%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of MetLife to stay under $ 54.48  after 30 days from now is close to 100%. Probability of MetLife Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 52.55  and $ 54.48  at the end of the 30-day period is about 14.79%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, MetLife Inc has beta of -0.2004 indicating as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding MetLife are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, MetLife Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MetLife Inc has an alpha of 0.04242537636363636 implying that it can potentially generate 0.04242537636363636% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
> 99%
Odds to stay under $ 54.48  after 30 days
 MetLife Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.042425
β
Beta against DOW=0.2
σ
Overall volatility
=0.98
Ir
Information ratio =0.2