Western Asset Municipal Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 7.2
| MHF Fund | USD 6.74 0.06 0.88% |
Western |
Western Asset Target Price Odds to finish below 7.2
The tendency of Western Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 7.20 after 90 days |
| 6.74 | 90 days | 7.20 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Western Asset to stay under $ 7.20 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Western Asset Municipal probability density function shows the probability of Western Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Western Asset Municipal price to stay between its current price of $ 6.74 and $ 7.20 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.8 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Western Asset has a beta of 0.0572. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Western Asset average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Western Asset Municipal will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Western Asset Municipal has an alpha of 0.0843, implying that it can generate a 0.0843 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Western Asset Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Western Asset
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Western Asset Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Western Asset's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Western Asset Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Western Asset is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Western Asset's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Western Asset Municipal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Western Asset within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Western Asset Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Western Asset for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Western Asset Municipal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% |
Western Asset Technical Analysis
Western Asset's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Western Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Western Asset Municipal. In general, you should focus on analyzing Western Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Western Asset Predictive Forecast Models
Western Asset's time-series forecasting models is one of many Western Asset's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Western Asset's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Western Asset Municipal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Western Asset for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Western Asset Municipal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% |
Check out Western Asset Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Western Asset Correlation, Western Asset Hype Analysis, Western Asset Volatility, Western Asset History as well as Western Asset Performance. Note that the Western Asset Municipal information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Western Asset's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.