Matthews China Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 23.23
| MICFX Fund | USD 11.46 0.17 1.51% |
Matthews |
Matthews China Target Price Odds to finish over 23.23
The tendency of Matthews Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 23.23 or more in 90 days |
| 11.46 | 90 days | 23.23 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Matthews China to move over $ 23.23 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Matthews China Fund probability density function shows the probability of Matthews Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Matthews China price to stay between its current price of $ 11.46 and $ 23.23 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.35 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Matthews China has a beta of 0.75. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Matthews China average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Matthews China Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Matthews China Fund has an alpha of 0.0551, implying that it can generate a 0.0551 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Matthews China Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Matthews China
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Matthews China. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Matthews China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Matthews China Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Matthews China is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Matthews China's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Matthews China Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Matthews China within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Matthews China Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Matthews China for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Matthews China can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Matthews China generated five year return of -5.0% | |
| This fund maintains 100.24% of its assets in stocks |
Matthews China Technical Analysis
Matthews China's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Matthews Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Matthews China Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Matthews Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Matthews China Predictive Forecast Models
Matthews China's time-series forecasting models is one of many Matthews China's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Matthews China's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Matthews China
Checking the ongoing alerts about Matthews China for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Matthews China help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Matthews China generated five year return of -5.0% | |
| This fund maintains 100.24% of its assets in stocks |
Check out Matthews China Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Matthews China Correlation, Matthews China Hype Analysis, Matthews China Volatility, Matthews China History as well as Matthews China Performance. Note that the Matthews China information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Matthews China's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.