Netflix (Brazil) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1518.0
| NFLX34 Stock | BRL 56.00 3.02 5.12% |
Netflix |
Netflix Target Price Odds to finish below 1518.0
The tendency of Netflix Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 1,518 after 90 days |
| 56.00 | 90 days | 1,518 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Netflix to stay under R$ 1,518 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Netflix probability density function shows the probability of Netflix Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Netflix price to stay between its current price of R$ 56.00 and R$ 1,518 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Netflix has a beta of 0.45. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Netflix average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Netflix will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Netflix has an alpha of 0.2201, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Netflix Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Netflix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Netflix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Netflix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Netflix Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Netflix is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Netflix's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Netflix, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Netflix within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.72 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Netflix Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Netflix for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Netflix can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Netflix has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 14.35 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 224.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Netflix has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Netflix until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Netflix's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Netflix sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Netflix to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Netflix's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Netflix Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Netflix Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Netflix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Netflix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 445.3 M |
Netflix Technical Analysis
Netflix's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Netflix Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Netflix. In general, you should focus on analyzing Netflix Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Netflix Predictive Forecast Models
Netflix's time-series forecasting models is one of many Netflix's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Netflix's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Netflix
Checking the ongoing alerts about Netflix for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Netflix help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Netflix has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company has accumulated 14.35 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 224.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Netflix has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Netflix until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Netflix's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Netflix sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Netflix to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Netflix's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Check out Netflix Backtesting, Netflix Valuation, Netflix Correlation, Netflix Hype Analysis, Netflix Volatility, Netflix History as well as Netflix Performance. For information on how to trade Netflix Stock refer to our How to Trade Netflix Stock guide.Note that the Netflix information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Netflix's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Netflix Stock analysis
When running Netflix's price analysis, check to measure Netflix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Netflix is operating at the current time. Most of Netflix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Netflix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Netflix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Netflix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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