Tencent Holdings (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.15
NNN1 Stock | EUR 39.40 1.40 3.68% |
Tencent |
Tencent Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 41.15
The tendency of Tencent Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 41.15 after 90 days |
39.40 | 90 days | 41.15 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tencent Holdings to stay under 41.15 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Tencent Holdings Ltd probability density function shows the probability of Tencent Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tencent Holdings price to stay between its current price of 39.40 and 41.15 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Tencent Holdings has a beta of 0.88. This indicates Tencent Holdings Ltd market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Tencent Holdings is expected to follow. Additionally Tencent Holdings Ltd has an alpha of 0.2158, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Tencent Holdings Price Density |
Price |
Predictive Modules for Tencent Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tencent Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tencent Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tencent Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tencent Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tencent Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tencent Holdings Ltd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tencent Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.73 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Tencent Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tencent Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tencent Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tencent Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.6 B |
Tencent Holdings Technical Analysis
Tencent Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tencent Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tencent Holdings Ltd. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tencent Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tencent Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Tencent Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Tencent Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tencent Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Tencent Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Tencent Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Tencent Holdings options trading.
Check out Tencent Holdings Backtesting, Tencent Holdings Valuation, Tencent Holdings Correlation, Tencent Holdings Hype Analysis, Tencent Holdings Volatility, Tencent Holdings History as well as Tencent Holdings Performance. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Complementary Tools for Tencent Stock analysis
When running Tencent Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Tencent Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tencent Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Tencent Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tencent Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tencent Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tencent Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
FinTech Suite Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets |