Newpark Resources Probability of Target Price

Newpark Resources Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 9.35  0.1  1.06%

Newpark Resources probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Newpark Resources Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Newpark Resources time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Newpark Resources odds to be computed. Please see also Newpark Resources Backtesting, Newpark Resources Valuation, Newpark Resources Correlation, Newpark Resources Hype Analysis, Newpark Resources Volatility, Newpark Resources History as well as Newpark Resources Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 9.35 30 days 9.7  about 58.31% about 41.17%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Newpark Resources to stay under $ 9.7  after 30 days from now is about 41.17%. Probability of Newpark Resources Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 9.35  and $ 9.7  at the end of the 30-day period is about 39.43%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Newpark Resources Inc has beta of -3.1915 indicating as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Newpark Resources Inc are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Newpark Resources is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Newpark Resources Inc has an alpha of 0.46721424275 implying that it can potentially generate 0.46721424275% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
41.0%
Odds to stay under $ 9.7  after 30 days
 Newpark Resources Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.47
βBeta against DOW=3.19
σ
Overall volatility
=0.19
 IrInformation ratio =0.19