Northern Star (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.57
| NS7 Stock | EUR 9.26 0.08 0.87% |
Northern |
Northern Star Target Price Odds to finish below 4.57
The tendency of Northern Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 4.57 or more in 90 days |
| 9.26 | 90 days | 4.57 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northern Star to drop to € 4.57 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Northern Star Resources probability density function shows the probability of Northern Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Northern Star Resources price to stay between € 4.57 and its current price of €9.26 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Northern Star Resources has a beta of -0.6. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Northern Star are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Northern Star Resources is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Northern Star Resources has an alpha of 0.3571, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Northern Star Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Northern Star
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Star Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern Star's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Northern Star Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northern Star is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northern Star's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northern Star Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northern Star within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.36 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.6 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Northern Star Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northern Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northern Star's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Star's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B |
Northern Star Technical Analysis
Northern Star's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Northern Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Northern Star Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Northern Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Northern Star Predictive Forecast Models
Northern Star's time-series forecasting models is one of many Northern Star's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Northern Star's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Northern Star in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Northern Star's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Northern Star options trading.
Check out Northern Star Backtesting, Northern Star Valuation, Northern Star Correlation, Northern Star Hype Analysis, Northern Star Volatility, Northern Star History as well as Northern Star Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for Northern Stock analysis
When running Northern Star's price analysis, check to measure Northern Star's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Star is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Star's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Star's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Star's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Star to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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