Navigator Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 12.6
| NVGS Stock | USD 14.97 0.14 0.94% |
Closest to current price Navigator long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Navigator |
Navigator Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 12.6
The tendency of Navigator Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 12.60 in 90 days |
| 14.97 | 90 days | 12.60 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Navigator Holdings to stay above $ 12.60 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Navigator Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Navigator Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Navigator Holdings price to stay between $ 12.60 and its current price of $14.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.73 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Navigator Holdings has a beta of 0.44. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Navigator Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Navigator Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Navigator Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Navigator Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Navigator Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Navigator Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Navigator Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Navigator Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Navigator Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Navigator Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Navigator Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Navigator Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Navigator Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Navigator Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Navigator Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Navigator Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 857.05 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.79, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Navigator Holdings has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Navigator Holdings until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Navigator Holdings' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Navigator Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Navigator to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Navigator Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Navigator Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 60.0% of Navigator Holdings outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Prioritizing Purpose A Blueprint for Purposeful Technology Adoption in the Post-Pandemic Era |
Navigator Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Navigator Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Navigator Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Navigator Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 158.2 M |
Navigator Holdings Technical Analysis
Navigator Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Navigator Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Navigator Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Navigator Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Navigator Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Navigator Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Navigator Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Navigator Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Navigator Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Navigator Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Navigator Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Navigator Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company currently holds 857.05 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.79, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Navigator Holdings has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Navigator Holdings until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Navigator Holdings' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Navigator Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Navigator to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Navigator Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Navigator Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 60.0% of Navigator Holdings outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Prioritizing Purpose A Blueprint for Purposeful Technology Adoption in the Post-Pandemic Era |
Check out Navigator Holdings Backtesting, Navigator Holdings Valuation, Navigator Holdings Correlation, Navigator Holdings Hype Analysis, Navigator Holdings Volatility, Navigator Holdings History as well as Navigator Holdings Performance. For more information on how to buy Navigator Stock please use our How to Invest in Navigator Holdings guide.Note that the Navigator Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Navigator Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Navigator Stock analysis
When running Navigator Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Navigator Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Navigator Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Navigator Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Navigator Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Navigator Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Navigator Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Navigator Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Navigator Holdings. If investors know Navigator will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Navigator Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.854 | Dividend Share 0.15 | Earnings Share 1.1 | Revenue Per Share 7.433 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.149 |
The market value of Navigator Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Navigator that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Navigator Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Navigator Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Navigator Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Navigator Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Navigator Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Navigator Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Navigator Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.