NZ REFINING (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.37

NZR Stock  EUR 0.83  0.01  1.22%   
NZ REFINING's future price is the expected price of NZ REFINING instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of NZ REFINING CO performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out NZ REFINING Backtesting, NZ REFINING Valuation, NZ REFINING Correlation, NZ REFINING Hype Analysis, NZ REFINING Volatility, NZ REFINING History as well as NZ REFINING Performance.
  
Please specify NZ REFINING's target price for which you would like NZ REFINING odds to be computed.

NZ REFINING Target Price Odds to finish over 1.37

The tendency of NZR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over € 1.37  or more in 90 days
 0.83 90 days 1.37 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NZ REFINING to move over € 1.37  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This NZ REFINING CO probability density function shows the probability of NZR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NZ REFINING CO price to stay between its current price of € 0.83  and € 1.37  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NZ REFINING has a beta of 0.009. This indicates as returns on the market go up, NZ REFINING average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NZ REFINING CO will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NZ REFINING CO has an alpha of 0.03, implying that it can generate a 0.03 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   NZ REFINING Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for NZ REFINING

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NZ REFINING CO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NZ REFINING's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.231.17
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.020.831.77
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.820.830.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as NZ REFINING. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against NZ REFINING's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, NZ REFINING's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in NZ REFINING CO.

NZ REFINING Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NZ REFINING is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NZ REFINING's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NZ REFINING CO, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NZ REFINING within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.01
σ
Overall volatility
0.01
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

NZ REFINING Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NZ REFINING for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NZ REFINING CO can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
NZ REFINING CO has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock

NZ REFINING Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NZR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NZ REFINING's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NZ REFINING's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding372.2 M
Dividend Yield0.0432

NZ REFINING Technical Analysis

NZ REFINING's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NZR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NZ REFINING CO. In general, you should focus on analyzing NZR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

NZ REFINING Predictive Forecast Models

NZ REFINING's time-series forecasting models is one of many NZ REFINING's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NZ REFINING's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about NZ REFINING CO

Checking the ongoing alerts about NZ REFINING for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NZ REFINING CO help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
NZ REFINING CO has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Check out NZ REFINING Backtesting, NZ REFINING Valuation, NZ REFINING Correlation, NZ REFINING Hype Analysis, NZ REFINING Volatility, NZ REFINING History as well as NZ REFINING Performance.
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When running NZ REFINING's price analysis, check to measure NZ REFINING's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NZ REFINING is operating at the current time. Most of NZ REFINING's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NZ REFINING's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NZ REFINING's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NZ REFINING to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between NZ REFINING's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NZ REFINING is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NZ REFINING's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.