On Semiconductor Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.25

ON Stock  USD 75.61  2.72  3.73%   
ON Semiconductor's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on ON Semiconductor. Implied volatility approximates the future value of ON Semiconductor based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in ON Semiconductor over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $76.0 is a CALL option contract on ON Semiconductor's common stock with a strick price of 76.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-26 at 15:35:59 for $0.14 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.09, and an ask price of $0.16. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 65.64. View All ON Semiconductor options

Closest to current price ON Semiconductor long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

ON Semiconductor's future price is the expected price of ON Semiconductor instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ON Semiconductor performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out ON Semiconductor Backtesting, ON Semiconductor Valuation, ON Semiconductor Correlation, ON Semiconductor Hype Analysis, ON Semiconductor Volatility, ON Semiconductor History as well as ON Semiconductor Performance.
To learn how to invest in ON Semiconductor Stock, please use our How to Invest in ON Semiconductor guide.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Price Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 21.39. Also, Price To Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 4.58. Please specify ON Semiconductor's target price for which you would like ON Semiconductor odds to be computed.

ON Semiconductor Target Price Odds to finish over 17.25

The tendency of ON Semiconductor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 17.25  in 90 days
 75.61 90 days 17.25 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ON Semiconductor to stay above $ 17.25  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This ON Semiconductor probability density function shows the probability of ON Semiconductor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ON Semiconductor price to stay between $ 17.25  and its current price of $75.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.53 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.57 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, ON Semiconductor will likely underperform. Additionally ON Semiconductor has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   ON Semiconductor Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ON Semiconductor

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ON Semiconductor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ON Semiconductor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
72.7175.3477.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
68.0597.83100.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
70.5473.1775.79
Details
32 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
108.75119.50132.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ON Semiconductor. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ON Semiconductor's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ON Semiconductor's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ON Semiconductor.

ON Semiconductor Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ON Semiconductor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ON Semiconductor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ON Semiconductor, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ON Semiconductor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.33
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.57
σ
Overall volatility
3.77
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

ON Semiconductor Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ON Semiconductor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ON Semiconductor can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ON Semiconductor generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Heres How Much You Would Have Made Owning ON Semiconductor Stock In The Last 10 Years

ON Semiconductor Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ON Semiconductor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ON Semiconductor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ON Semiconductor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding446.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.5 B

ON Semiconductor Technical Analysis

ON Semiconductor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ON Semiconductor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ON Semiconductor. In general, you should focus on analyzing ON Semiconductor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ON Semiconductor Predictive Forecast Models

ON Semiconductor's time-series forecasting models is one of many ON Semiconductor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ON Semiconductor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about ON Semiconductor

Checking the ongoing alerts about ON Semiconductor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ON Semiconductor help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
ON Semiconductor generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Heres How Much You Would Have Made Owning ON Semiconductor Stock In The Last 10 Years
When determining whether ON Semiconductor offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ON Semiconductor's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of On Semiconductor Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on On Semiconductor Stock:

Complementary Tools for ON Semiconductor Stock analysis

When running ON Semiconductor's price analysis, check to measure ON Semiconductor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ON Semiconductor is operating at the current time. Most of ON Semiconductor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ON Semiconductor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ON Semiconductor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ON Semiconductor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ON Semiconductor's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ON Semiconductor. If investors know ON Semiconductor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ON Semiconductor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.05)
Earnings Share
4.89
Revenue Per Share
19.162
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
Return On Assets
0.1294
The market value of ON Semiconductor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ON Semiconductor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ON Semiconductor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ON Semiconductor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ON Semiconductor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ON Semiconductor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ON Semiconductor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ON Semiconductor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ON Semiconductor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.