Paccar Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 57.57

PCAR Stock  USD 123.89  0.57  0.46%   
PACCAR's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on PACCAR Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of PACCAR based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in PACCAR Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $125.0 is a CALL option contract on PACCAR's common stock with a strick price of 125.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:37:01 for $1.95 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.85, and an ask price of $2.05. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 19.55. View All PACCAR options

Closest to current price PACCAR long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

PACCAR's future price is the expected price of PACCAR instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of PACCAR Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out PACCAR Backtesting, PACCAR Valuation, PACCAR Correlation, PACCAR Hype Analysis, PACCAR Volatility, PACCAR History as well as PACCAR Performance.
  
At this time, PACCAR's Price Earnings Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price To Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 1.53, while Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to drop 0.11. Please specify PACCAR's target price for which you would like PACCAR odds to be computed.

PACCAR Target Price Odds to finish below 57.57

The tendency of PACCAR Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 57.57  or more in 90 days
 123.89 90 days 57.57 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PACCAR to drop to $ 57.57  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This PACCAR Inc probability density function shows the probability of PACCAR Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PACCAR Inc price to stay between $ 57.57  and its current price of $123.89 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days PACCAR has a beta of 0.9 indicating PACCAR Inc market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, PACCAR is expected to follow. Additionally PACCAR Inc has an alpha of 0.2515, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   PACCAR Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for PACCAR

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PACCAR Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PACCAR's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
124.07125.19126.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
113.40114.52136.91
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
124.36125.48126.61
Details
22 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
82.9491.14101.17
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PACCAR. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PACCAR's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PACCAR's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PACCAR Inc.

PACCAR Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PACCAR is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PACCAR's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PACCAR Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PACCAR within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.25
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.90
σ
Overall volatility
9.59
Ir
Information ratio 0.22

PACCAR Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PACCAR for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PACCAR Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
PACCAR Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 6th of March 2024 PACCAR paid $ 0.27 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Truck stocks Iveco, Daimler, PACCAR are roaring in 2024

PACCAR Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PACCAR Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PACCAR's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PACCAR's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding525 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.7 B

PACCAR Technical Analysis

PACCAR's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PACCAR Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PACCAR Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing PACCAR Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

PACCAR Predictive Forecast Models

PACCAR's time-series forecasting models is one of many PACCAR's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PACCAR's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about PACCAR Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about PACCAR for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PACCAR Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
PACCAR Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 6th of March 2024 PACCAR paid $ 0.27 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Truck stocks Iveco, Daimler, PACCAR are roaring in 2024
When determining whether PACCAR Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze PACCAR's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact PACCAR's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding PACCAR Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out PACCAR Backtesting, PACCAR Valuation, PACCAR Correlation, PACCAR Hype Analysis, PACCAR Volatility, PACCAR History as well as PACCAR Performance.
Note that the PACCAR Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other PACCAR's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

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When running PACCAR's price analysis, check to measure PACCAR's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PACCAR is operating at the current time. Most of PACCAR's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PACCAR's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PACCAR's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PACCAR to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is PACCAR's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PACCAR. If investors know PACCAR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PACCAR listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.528
Dividend Share
1.04
Earnings Share
8.76
Revenue Per Share
67.05
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.117
The market value of PACCAR Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PACCAR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PACCAR's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PACCAR's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PACCAR's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PACCAR's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PACCAR's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PACCAR is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PACCAR's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.