Pennymac Mortgage Investment Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.55

PMT Stock  USD 14.52  0.18  1.26%   
PennyMac Mortgage's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on PennyMac Mortgage Investment. Implied volatility approximates the future value of PennyMac Mortgage based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in PennyMac Mortgage Investment over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on PennyMac Mortgage's common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-26 at 13:45:25 for $0.13 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.25. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 24.31. View All PennyMac options

Closest to current price PennyMac long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

PennyMac Mortgage's future price is the expected price of PennyMac Mortgage instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of PennyMac Mortgage Investment performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out PennyMac Mortgage Backtesting, PennyMac Mortgage Valuation, PennyMac Mortgage Correlation, PennyMac Mortgage Hype Analysis, PennyMac Mortgage Volatility, PennyMac Mortgage History as well as PennyMac Mortgage Performance.
  
At this time, PennyMac Mortgage's Price Earnings Ratio is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Price Book Value Ratio is likely to gain to 0.90 in 2024, whereas Price Sales Ratio is likely to drop 1.08 in 2024. Please specify PennyMac Mortgage's target price for which you would like PennyMac Mortgage odds to be computed.

PennyMac Mortgage Target Price Odds to finish below 18.55

The tendency of PennyMac Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 18.55  after 90 days
 14.52 90 days 18.55 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PennyMac Mortgage to stay under $ 18.55  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This PennyMac Mortgage Investment probability density function shows the probability of PennyMac Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PennyMac Mortgage price to stay between its current price of $ 14.52  and $ 18.55  at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.39 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.71 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, PennyMac Mortgage will likely underperform. Additionally PennyMac Mortgage Investment has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   PennyMac Mortgage Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for PennyMac Mortgage

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PennyMac Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PennyMac Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.0314.5216.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.5114.0015.49
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
12.7114.1915.68
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.4113.6415.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PennyMac Mortgage. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PennyMac Mortgage's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PennyMac Mortgage's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PennyMac Mortgage.

PennyMac Mortgage Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PennyMac Mortgage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PennyMac Mortgage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PennyMac Mortgage Investment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PennyMac Mortgage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.29
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.71
σ
Overall volatility
0.52
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

PennyMac Mortgage Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PennyMac Mortgage for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PennyMac Mortgage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
PennyMac Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 10.47 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 5.24, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. PennyMac Mortgage has a current ratio of 0.84, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist PennyMac Mortgage until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, PennyMac Mortgage's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like PennyMac Mortgage sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for PennyMac to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about PennyMac Mortgage's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
PennyMac Mortgage has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 70.0% of PennyMac Mortgage shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Why Asset Entities Stock Is Trading Higher

PennyMac Mortgage Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PennyMac Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PennyMac Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PennyMac Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding111 M
Cash And Short Term Investments409.4 M

PennyMac Mortgage Technical Analysis

PennyMac Mortgage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PennyMac Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment. In general, you should focus on analyzing PennyMac Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

PennyMac Mortgage Predictive Forecast Models

PennyMac Mortgage's time-series forecasting models is one of many PennyMac Mortgage's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PennyMac Mortgage's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about PennyMac Mortgage

Checking the ongoing alerts about PennyMac Mortgage for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PennyMac Mortgage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
PennyMac Mortgage generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company has 10.47 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 5.24, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. PennyMac Mortgage has a current ratio of 0.84, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist PennyMac Mortgage until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, PennyMac Mortgage's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like PennyMac Mortgage sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for PennyMac to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about PennyMac Mortgage's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
PennyMac Mortgage has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 70.0% of PennyMac Mortgage shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Why Asset Entities Stock Is Trading Higher
When determining whether PennyMac Mortgage is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if PennyMac Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Pennymac Mortgage Investment Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Pennymac Mortgage Investment Stock:

Complementary Tools for PennyMac Stock analysis

When running PennyMac Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure PennyMac Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PennyMac Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of PennyMac Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PennyMac Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PennyMac Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PennyMac Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is PennyMac Mortgage's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PennyMac Mortgage. If investors know PennyMac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PennyMac Mortgage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
50.468
Dividend Share
1.6
Earnings Share
1.63
Revenue Per Share
8.308
Quarterly Revenue Growth
2.037
The market value of PennyMac Mortgage is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PennyMac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PennyMac Mortgage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PennyMac Mortgage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PennyMac Mortgage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PennyMac Mortgage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PennyMac Mortgage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PennyMac Mortgage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PennyMac Mortgage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.