Parex Resources Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.53

PXT Stock  CAD 21.52  0.09  0.42%   
Parex Resources' future price is the expected price of Parex Resources instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Parex Resources performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Parex Resources Backtesting, Parex Resources Valuation, Parex Resources Correlation, Parex Resources Hype Analysis, Parex Resources Volatility, Parex Resources History as well as Parex Resources Performance.
  
At this time, Parex Resources' Price Fair Value is very stable compared to the past year. Please specify Parex Resources' target price for which you would like Parex Resources odds to be computed.

Parex Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 18.53

The tendency of Parex Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to C$ 18.53  or more in 90 days
 21.52 90 days 18.53 
about 1.14
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Parex Resources to drop to C$ 18.53  or more in 90 days from now is about 1.14 (This Parex Resources probability density function shows the probability of Parex Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Parex Resources price to stay between C$ 18.53  and its current price of C$21.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.86 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.53 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Parex Resources will likely underperform. Additionally Parex Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Parex Resources Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Parex Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Parex Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Parex Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.4821.2023.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.2421.9624.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
19.0721.8024.52
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Parex Resources. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Parex Resources' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Parex Resources' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Parex Resources.

Parex Resources Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Parex Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Parex Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Parex Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Parex Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.39
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.53
σ
Overall volatility
1.54
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Parex Resources Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Parex Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Parex Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Parex Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Parex Resources Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Parex Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Parex Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Parex Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding104.5 M

Parex Resources Technical Analysis

Parex Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Parex Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Parex Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Parex Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Parex Resources Predictive Forecast Models

Parex Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Parex Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Parex Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Parex Resources

Checking the ongoing alerts about Parex Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Parex Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Parex Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Complementary Tools for Parex Stock analysis

When running Parex Resources' price analysis, check to measure Parex Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Parex Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Parex Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Parex Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Parex Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Parex Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Parex Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Parex Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Parex Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.