Royal Caribbean Cruises Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 64.55
| RCL Stock | USD 127.17 0.50 0.39% |
Closest to current price Royal long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Royal |
Royal Caribbean Target Price Odds to finish below 64.55
The tendency of Royal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 64.55 or more in 90 days |
| 127.17 | 90 days | 64.55 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Royal Caribbean to drop to $ 64.55 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Royal Caribbean Cruises probability density function shows the probability of Royal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Royal Caribbean Cruises price to stay between $ 64.55 and its current price of $127.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 52.44 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.3 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Royal Caribbean will likely underperform. Additionally Royal Caribbean Cruises has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Royal Caribbean Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Royal Caribbean
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Royal Caribbean Cruises. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royal Caribbean's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Royal Caribbean Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Royal Caribbean is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Royal Caribbean's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Royal Caribbean Cruises, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Royal Caribbean within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0055 |
Royal Caribbean Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Royal Caribbean for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Royal Caribbean Cruises can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has 22.13 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.47, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Royal Caribbean Cruises has a current ratio of 0.28, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Royal Caribbean until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Royal Caribbean's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Royal Caribbean Cruises sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Royal to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Royal Caribbean's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Royal Caribbean has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 81.0% of Royal Caribbean shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Celebrity Cruises Visa Signature review Earn points and discounts towards your next voyage |
Royal Caribbean Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Royal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Royal Caribbean's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Royal Caribbean's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 283 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 522 M |
Royal Caribbean Technical Analysis
Royal Caribbean's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Royal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Royal Caribbean Cruises. In general, you should focus on analyzing Royal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Royal Caribbean Predictive Forecast Models
Royal Caribbean's time-series forecasting models is one of many Royal Caribbean's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Royal Caribbean's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Royal Caribbean Cruises
Checking the ongoing alerts about Royal Caribbean for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Royal Caribbean Cruises help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has 22.13 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.47, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Royal Caribbean Cruises has a current ratio of 0.28, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Royal Caribbean until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Royal Caribbean's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Royal Caribbean Cruises sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Royal to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Royal Caribbean's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Royal Caribbean has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 81.0% of Royal Caribbean shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Celebrity Cruises Visa Signature review Earn points and discounts towards your next voyage |
Check out Royal Caribbean Backtesting, Royal Caribbean Valuation, Royal Caribbean Correlation, Royal Caribbean Hype Analysis, Royal Caribbean Volatility, Royal Caribbean History as well as Royal Caribbean Performance. Note that the Royal Caribbean Cruises information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Royal Caribbean's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for Royal Stock analysis
When running Royal Caribbean's price analysis, check to measure Royal Caribbean's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Royal Caribbean is operating at the current time. Most of Royal Caribbean's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Royal Caribbean's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Royal Caribbean's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Royal Caribbean to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Royal Caribbean's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Royal Caribbean. If investors know Royal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Royal Caribbean listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 27.254 | Earnings Share 6.31 | Revenue Per Share 54.297 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.28 | Return On Assets 0.0525 |
The market value of Royal Caribbean Cruises is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Royal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Royal Caribbean's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Royal Caribbean's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Royal Caribbean's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Royal Caribbean's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Royal Caribbean's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Royal Caribbean is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Royal Caribbean's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.