Royal Gold Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 98.0

RGLD Stock  USD 121.81  2.62  2.20%   
Royal Gold's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Royal Gold. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Royal Gold based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Royal Gold over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $120.0 is a CALL option contract on Royal Gold's common stock with a strick price of 120.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 15:22:51 for $4.25 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $4.1, and an ask price of $4.4. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 26.82. View All Royal options

Closest to current price Royal long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Royal Gold's future price is the expected price of Royal Gold instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Royal Gold performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Royal Gold Backtesting, Royal Gold Valuation, Royal Gold Correlation, Royal Gold Hype Analysis, Royal Gold Volatility, Royal Gold History as well as Royal Gold Performance.
For information on how to trade Royal Stock refer to our How to Trade Royal Stock guide.
  
At present, Royal Gold's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 20.04, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 12.45. Please specify Royal Gold's target price for which you would like Royal Gold odds to be computed.

Royal Gold Target Price Odds to finish over 98.0

The tendency of Royal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 98.00  in 90 days
 121.81 90 days 98.00 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Royal Gold to stay above $ 98.00  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Royal Gold probability density function shows the probability of Royal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Royal Gold price to stay between $ 98.00  and its current price of $121.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.49 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.91 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Royal Gold will likely underperform. Additionally Royal Gold has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Royal Gold Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Royal Gold

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Royal Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royal Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
119.76121.81123.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
111.23113.28133.99
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
114.35116.40118.45
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
134.43147.73163.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Royal Gold. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Royal Gold's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Royal Gold's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Royal Gold.

Royal Gold Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Royal Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Royal Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Royal Gold, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Royal Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.23
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.91
σ
Overall volatility
5.62
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Royal Gold Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Royal Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Royal Gold can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Lundin Mining, Royal Gold upgraded at BMO Capital on commodity rebound

Royal Gold Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Royal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Royal Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Royal Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding65.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments118.6 M

Royal Gold Technical Analysis

Royal Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Royal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Royal Gold. In general, you should focus on analyzing Royal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Royal Gold Predictive Forecast Models

Royal Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Royal Gold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Royal Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Royal Gold

Checking the ongoing alerts about Royal Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Royal Gold help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Lundin Mining, Royal Gold upgraded at BMO Capital on commodity rebound
When determining whether Royal Gold is a strong investment it is important to analyze Royal Gold's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Royal Gold's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Royal Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Royal Gold Backtesting, Royal Gold Valuation, Royal Gold Correlation, Royal Gold Hype Analysis, Royal Gold Volatility, Royal Gold History as well as Royal Gold Performance.
For information on how to trade Royal Stock refer to our How to Trade Royal Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Royal Stock analysis

When running Royal Gold's price analysis, check to measure Royal Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Royal Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Royal Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Royal Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Royal Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Royal Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Share Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Portfolio Dashboard
Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
USA ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA
Is Royal Gold's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Royal Gold. If investors know Royal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Royal Gold listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.142
Dividend Share
0.6
Earnings Share
3.63
Revenue Per Share
9.842
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.059
The market value of Royal Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Royal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Royal Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Royal Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Royal Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Royal Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Royal Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Royal Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Royal Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.