Origin Agritech Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.28

SEED Stock  USD 4.04  0.06  1.51%   
Origin Agritech's future price is the expected price of Origin Agritech instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Origin Agritech performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Origin Agritech Backtesting, Origin Agritech Valuation, Origin Agritech Correlation, Origin Agritech Hype Analysis, Origin Agritech Volatility, Origin Agritech History as well as Origin Agritech Performance.
For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.
  
As of March 29, 2024, Price Earnings Ratio is expected to decline to -112.31. In addition to that, Price To Sales Ratio is expected to decline to 2.38. Please specify Origin Agritech's target price for which you would like Origin Agritech odds to be computed.

Origin Agritech Target Price Odds to finish over 16.28

The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 16.28  or more in 90 days
 4.04 90 days 16.28 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Agritech to move over $ 16.28  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Origin Agritech probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Origin Agritech price to stay between its current price of $ 4.04  and $ 16.28  at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.34 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Origin Agritech has a beta of -0.77. This usually implies as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Origin Agritech are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Origin Agritech is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Origin Agritech has an alpha of 1.6655, implying that it can generate a 1.67 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Origin Agritech Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Origin Agritech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Agritech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Agritech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.204.0414.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.142.8612.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.14.8014.91
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
2.353.204.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Origin Agritech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Origin Agritech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Origin Agritech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Origin Agritech.

Origin Agritech Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Agritech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Agritech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Agritech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Agritech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
1.67
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.77
σ
Overall volatility
0.70
Ir
Information ratio 0.14

Origin Agritech Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Agritech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Agritech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Origin Agritech is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Origin Agritech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company currently holds 241 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.13, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Origin Agritech until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Origin Agritech's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Origin Agritech sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Origin to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Origin Agritech currently holds about 6.51 M in cash with (5.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13.
Roughly 13.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Top 5 Defensive Stocks That May Plunge This Quarter

Origin Agritech Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Agritech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Agritech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding6.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments23.7 M

Origin Agritech Technical Analysis

Origin Agritech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Origin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Origin Agritech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Origin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Origin Agritech Predictive Forecast Models

Origin Agritech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Origin Agritech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Origin Agritech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Origin Agritech

Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Agritech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Agritech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Origin Agritech is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Origin Agritech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Origin Agritech has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company currently holds 241 K in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 180.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Origin Agritech has a current ratio of 0.13, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Origin Agritech until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Origin Agritech's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Origin Agritech sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Origin to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Origin Agritech's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Origin Agritech currently holds about 6.51 M in cash with (5.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13.
Roughly 13.0% of Origin Agritech outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from benzinga.com: Top 5 Defensive Stocks That May Plunge This Quarter
When determining whether Origin Agritech is a strong investment it is important to analyze Origin Agritech's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Origin Agritech's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Origin Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Origin Agritech Backtesting, Origin Agritech Valuation, Origin Agritech Correlation, Origin Agritech Hype Analysis, Origin Agritech Volatility, Origin Agritech History as well as Origin Agritech Performance.
For information on how to trade Origin Stock refer to our How to Trade Origin Stock guide.
Note that the Origin Agritech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Origin Agritech's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Complementary Tools for Origin Stock analysis

When running Origin Agritech's price analysis, check to measure Origin Agritech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Agritech is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Agritech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Agritech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Agritech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Agritech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Origin Agritech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Agritech. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Agritech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
1.17
Revenue Per Share
14.254
Quarterly Revenue Growth
3.38
Return On Assets
(0.04)
Return On Equity
(3.72)
The market value of Origin Agritech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Agritech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Agritech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Agritech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Agritech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Agritech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Agritech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Agritech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.