Energy Basic Materials Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 10.94
| SEPCX Fund | USD 10.87 0.02 0.18% |
Energy |
Energy Basic Target Price Odds to finish below 10.94
The tendency of Energy Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 10.94 after 90 days |
| 10.87 | 90 days | 10.94 | about 91.74 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Energy Basic to stay under $ 10.94 after 90 days from now is about 91.74 (This Energy Basic Materials probability density function shows the probability of Energy Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Energy Basic Materials price to stay between its current price of $ 10.87 and $ 10.94 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.74 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Energy Basic has a beta of 0.83. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Energy Basic average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Energy Basic Materials will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Energy Basic Materials has an alpha of 0.0876, implying that it can generate a 0.0876 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Energy Basic Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Energy Basic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Energy Basic Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Energy Basic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Energy Basic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Energy Basic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Energy Basic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Energy Basic Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Energy Basic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Energy Basic Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Energy Basic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Energy Basic Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated-5.0 ten year return of -5.0% | |
| Energy Basic Materials maintains 99.06% of its assets in stocks |
Energy Basic Technical Analysis
Energy Basic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Energy Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Energy Basic Materials. In general, you should focus on analyzing Energy Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Energy Basic Predictive Forecast Models
Energy Basic's time-series forecasting models is one of many Energy Basic's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Energy Basic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Energy Basic Materials
Checking the ongoing alerts about Energy Basic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Energy Basic Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated-5.0 ten year return of -5.0% | |
| Energy Basic Materials maintains 99.06% of its assets in stocks |
Check out Energy Basic Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Energy Basic Correlation, Energy Basic Hype Analysis, Energy Basic Volatility, Energy Basic History as well as Energy Basic Performance. Note that the Energy Basic Materials information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Energy Basic's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.