Summit Materials Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 32.65

SUM Stock  USD 44.03  0.57  1.31%   
Summit Materials' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Summit Materials. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Summit Materials based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Summit Materials over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $45.0 is a CALL option contract on Summit Materials' common stock with a strick price of 45.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 14:59:04 for $0.7 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.4, and an ask price of $2.2. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 24.41. View All Summit options

Closest to current price Summit long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Summit Materials' future price is the expected price of Summit Materials instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Summit Materials performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Summit Materials Backtesting, Summit Materials Valuation, Summit Materials Correlation, Summit Materials Hype Analysis, Summit Materials Volatility, Summit Materials History as well as Summit Materials Performance.
To learn how to invest in Summit Stock, please use our How to Invest in Summit Materials guide.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop to 9.30. In addition to that, Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop to 0.82. Please specify Summit Materials' target price for which you would like Summit Materials odds to be computed.

Summit Materials Target Price Odds to finish below 32.65

The tendency of Summit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 32.65  or more in 90 days
 44.03 90 days 32.65 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Summit Materials to drop to $ 32.65  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Summit Materials probability density function shows the probability of Summit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Summit Materials price to stay between $ 32.65  and its current price of $44.03 at the end of the 90-day period is more than 94.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.36 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Summit Materials will likely underperform. Additionally Summit Materials has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Summit Materials Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Summit Materials

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Summit Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Summit Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
41.9343.9946.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
40.1942.2544.31
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
42.6644.7146.77
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
38.9442.7947.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Summit Materials. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Summit Materials' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Summit Materials' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Summit Materials.

Summit Materials Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Summit Materials is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Summit Materials' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Summit Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Summit Materials within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.08
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.36
σ
Overall volatility
2.87
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

Summit Materials Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Summit Materials for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Summit Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Vanguard Group Inc. Grows Stock Position in Summit Materials, Inc. - Defense World

Summit Materials Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Summit Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Summit Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Summit Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding119.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments374.2 M

Summit Materials Technical Analysis

Summit Materials' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Summit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Summit Materials. In general, you should focus on analyzing Summit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Summit Materials Predictive Forecast Models

Summit Materials' time-series forecasting models is one of many Summit Materials' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Summit Materials' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Summit Materials

Checking the ongoing alerts about Summit Materials for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Summit Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Vanguard Group Inc. Grows Stock Position in Summit Materials, Inc. - Defense World
When determining whether Summit Materials is a strong investment it is important to analyze Summit Materials' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Summit Materials' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Summit Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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When running Summit Materials' price analysis, check to measure Summit Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Summit Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Summit Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Summit Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Summit Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Summit Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Summit Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Summit Materials. If investors know Summit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Summit Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.90)
Earnings Share
2.39
Revenue Per Share
22.004
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.195
Return On Assets
0.0438
The market value of Summit Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Summit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Summit Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Summit Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Summit Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Summit Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Summit Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Summit Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Summit Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.