Smead Value Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 51.58

SVFKX Fund  USD 84.93  1.48  1.77%   
Smead Value's future price is the expected price of Smead Value instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Smead Value Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Smead Value Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Smead Value Correlation, Smead Value Hype Analysis, Smead Value Volatility, Smead Value History as well as Smead Value Performance.
  
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Smead Value Target Price Odds to finish over 51.58

The tendency of Smead Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 51.58  in 90 days
 84.93 90 days 51.58 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smead Value to stay above $ 51.58  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Smead Value Fund probability density function shows the probability of Smead Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smead Value Fund price to stay between $ 51.58  and its current price of $84.93 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Smead Value Fund has a beta of -0.11. This usually implies as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Smead Value are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Smead Value Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Smead Value Fund has an alpha of 0.1462, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Smead Value Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Smead Value

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smead Value Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smead Value's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
84.1384.9385.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
76.3477.1493.42
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
84.5185.3186.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
82.8484.0985.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Smead Value. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Smead Value's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Smead Value's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Smead Value Fund.

Smead Value Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smead Value is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smead Value's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smead Value Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smead Value within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.15
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.11
σ
Overall volatility
2.29
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

Smead Value Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smead Value for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smead Value Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains 97.08% of its assets in stocks

Smead Value Technical Analysis

Smead Value's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smead Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smead Value Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smead Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Smead Value Predictive Forecast Models

Smead Value's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smead Value's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smead Value's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Smead Value Fund

Checking the ongoing alerts about Smead Value for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smead Value Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The fund maintains 97.08% of its assets in stocks
Check out Smead Value Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Smead Value Correlation, Smead Value Hype Analysis, Smead Value Volatility, Smead Value History as well as Smead Value Performance.
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When running Smead Value's price analysis, check to measure Smead Value's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Smead Value is operating at the current time. Most of Smead Value's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Smead Value's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Smead Value's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Smead Value to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Smead Value's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smead Value is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smead Value's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.