Smead Value Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 43.33

SVFSX -- USA Fund  

USD 43.33  1.24  2.78%

Smead Value probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Smead Value Fund Class S performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Smead Value time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Smead Value odds to be computed. Additionally take a look at World Market Map.
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Smead Value Target Price Odds to finish below 43.33

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move below current price in 30 days
 43.33 30 days 43.33 
about 6.93
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Smead Value to move below current price in 30 days from now is about 6.93 (This Smead Value Fund Class S probability density function shows the probability of Smead Value Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Smead Value Fund Class S has beta of -0.1928 . This entails as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Smead Value are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Smead Value Fund Class S is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Smead Value Fund is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Smead Value Price Density 
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.19
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.18

Smead Value Alerts and Suggestions

Smead Value Fund is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Smead Value Fund generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The fund maintains about 5.22% of its assets in cash

Smead ValuePrice Density Drivers