Swedish Match Ab Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 23.45

SWMAYDelisted Stock  USD 10.57  0.00  0.00%   
Swedish Match's future price is the expected price of Swedish Match instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Swedish Match Ab performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
  
Please specify Swedish Match's target price for which you would like Swedish Match odds to be computed.

Swedish Match Target Price Odds to finish over 23.45

The tendency of Swedish Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 23.45  or more in 90 days
 10.57 90 days 23.45 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Swedish Match to move over $ 23.45  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Swedish Match Ab probability density function shows the probability of Swedish Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Swedish Match Ab price to stay between its current price of $ 10.57  and $ 23.45  at the end of the 90-day period is about 67.05 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the pink sheet has the beta coefficient of 1.17 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Swedish Match will likely underperform. Additionally Swedish Match Ab has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Swedish Match Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Swedish Match

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swedish Match Ab. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Swedish Match's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.5710.5710.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.888.8811.63
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10.8110.8110.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.5610.5710.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Swedish Match. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Swedish Match's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Swedish Match's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Swedish Match Ab.

Swedish Match Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Swedish Match is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Swedish Match's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Swedish Match Ab, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Swedish Match within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.12
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.17
σ
Overall volatility
0.34
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Swedish Match Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Swedish Match for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Swedish Match Ab can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Swedish Match Ab is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Swedish Match Ab has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years

Swedish Match Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Swedish Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Swedish Match's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Swedish Match's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.5 B

Swedish Match Technical Analysis

Swedish Match's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Swedish Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Swedish Match Ab. In general, you should focus on analyzing Swedish Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Swedish Match Predictive Forecast Models

Swedish Match's time-series forecasting models is one of many Swedish Match's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Swedish Match's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Swedish Match Ab

Checking the ongoing alerts about Swedish Match for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Swedish Match Ab help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Swedish Match Ab is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
Swedish Match Ab has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
Note that the Swedish Match Ab information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Swedish Match's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Other Consideration for investing in Swedish Pink Sheet

If you are still planning to invest in Swedish Match Ab check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Swedish Match's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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