Ternium SA (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 562.8
| TX Stock | MXN 721.01 5.03 0.70% |
Ternium |
Ternium SA Target Price Odds to finish over 562.8
The tendency of Ternium Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 562.80 in 90 days |
| 721.01 | 90 days | 562.80 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ternium SA to stay above 562.80 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ternium SA probability density function shows the probability of Ternium Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ternium SA price to stay between 562.80 and its current price of 721.01 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Ternium SA has a beta of -0.0293. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ternium SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ternium SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ternium SA has an alpha of 0.0386, implying that it can generate a 0.0386 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ternium SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ternium SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ternium SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ternium SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ternium SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ternium SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ternium SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ternium SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ternium SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 21.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Ternium SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ternium Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ternium SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ternium SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2 B |
Ternium SA Technical Analysis
Ternium SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ternium Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ternium SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ternium Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ternium SA Predictive Forecast Models
Ternium SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ternium SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ternium SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ternium SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ternium SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ternium SA options trading.
Check out Ternium SA Backtesting, Ternium SA Valuation, Ternium SA Correlation, Ternium SA Hype Analysis, Ternium SA Volatility, Ternium SA History as well as Ternium SA Performance. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Complementary Tools for Ternium Stock analysis
When running Ternium SA's price analysis, check to measure Ternium SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ternium SA is operating at the current time. Most of Ternium SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ternium SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ternium SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ternium SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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