UNIV HEALTH (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 97.23
UHS Stock | EUR 164.00 1.00 0.61% |
UNIV |
UNIV HEALTH Target Price Odds to finish over 97.23
The tendency of UNIV Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 97.23 in 90 days |
164.00 | 90 days | 97.23 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UNIV HEALTH to stay above 97.23 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This UNIV HEALTH SERV B probability density function shows the probability of UNIV Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UNIV HEALTH SERV-B price to stay between 97.23 and its current price of 164.0 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UNIV HEALTH SERV B has a beta of -0.4. This usually implies as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding UNIV HEALTH are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, UNIV HEALTH SERV B is likely to outperform the market. Additionally UNIV HEALTH SERV B has an alpha of 0.3454, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). UNIV HEALTH Price Density |
Price |
Predictive Modules for UNIV HEALTH
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UNIV HEALTH SERV-B. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UNIV HEALTH's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UNIV HEALTH Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UNIV HEALTH is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UNIV HEALTH's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UNIV HEALTH SERV B, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UNIV HEALTH within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.35 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.4 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
UNIV HEALTH Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UNIV Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UNIV HEALTH's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UNIV HEALTH's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 70.6 M | |
Dividends Paid | 58.4 M | |
Short Long Term Debt | 81.4 M |
UNIV HEALTH Technical Analysis
UNIV HEALTH's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UNIV Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UNIV HEALTH SERV B. In general, you should focus on analyzing UNIV Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UNIV HEALTH Predictive Forecast Models
UNIV HEALTH's time-series forecasting models is one of many UNIV HEALTH's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UNIV HEALTH's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UNIV HEALTH in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UNIV HEALTH's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UNIV HEALTH options trading.
Check out UNIV HEALTH Backtesting, UNIV HEALTH Valuation, UNIV HEALTH Correlation, UNIV HEALTH Hype Analysis, UNIV HEALTH Volatility, UNIV HEALTH History as well as UNIV HEALTH Performance. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for UNIV Stock analysis
When running UNIV HEALTH's price analysis, check to measure UNIV HEALTH's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UNIV HEALTH is operating at the current time. Most of UNIV HEALTH's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UNIV HEALTH's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UNIV HEALTH's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UNIV HEALTH to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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