Vivendi SA (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 21.21

VIV Stock  EUR 10.04  0.08  0.80%   
Vivendi SA's future price is the expected price of Vivendi SA instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vivendi SA performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Vivendi SA Backtesting, Vivendi SA Valuation, Vivendi SA Correlation, Vivendi SA Hype Analysis, Vivendi SA Volatility, Vivendi SA History as well as Vivendi SA Performance.
  
Please specify Vivendi SA's target price for which you would like Vivendi SA odds to be computed.

Vivendi SA Target Price Odds to finish over 21.21

The tendency of Vivendi Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over € 21.21  or more in 90 days
 10.04 90 days 21.21 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vivendi SA to move over € 21.21  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Vivendi SA probability density function shows the probability of Vivendi Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vivendi SA price to stay between its current price of € 10.04  and € 21.21  at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.32 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Vivendi SA has a beta of 0.0915. This entails as returns on the market go up, Vivendi SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vivendi SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vivendi SA has an alpha of 0.0491, implying that it can generate a 0.0491 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Vivendi SA Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vivendi SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vivendi SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vivendi SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.1110.0410.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.029.9510.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.1610.0911.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.929.9910.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vivendi SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vivendi SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vivendi SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vivendi SA.

Vivendi SA Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vivendi SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vivendi SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vivendi SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vivendi SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.05
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.09
σ
Overall volatility
0.24
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Vivendi SA Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vivendi SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vivendi SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has accumulated 4.25 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 53.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Vivendi SA has a current ratio of 0.96, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Vivendi SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Vivendi SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Vivendi SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Vivendi to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Vivendi SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
About 32.0% of Vivendi SA outstanding shares are owned by insiders

Vivendi SA Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vivendi Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vivendi SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vivendi SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments4.5 B

Vivendi SA Technical Analysis

Vivendi SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vivendi Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vivendi SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vivendi Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vivendi SA Predictive Forecast Models

Vivendi SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vivendi SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vivendi SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vivendi SA

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vivendi SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vivendi SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has accumulated 4.25 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 53.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Vivendi SA has a current ratio of 0.96, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Vivendi SA until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Vivendi SA's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Vivendi SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Vivendi to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Vivendi SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
About 32.0% of Vivendi SA outstanding shares are owned by insiders
Check out Vivendi SA Backtesting, Vivendi SA Valuation, Vivendi SA Correlation, Vivendi SA Hype Analysis, Vivendi SA Volatility, Vivendi SA History as well as Vivendi SA Performance.
You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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When running Vivendi SA's price analysis, check to measure Vivendi SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vivendi SA is operating at the current time. Most of Vivendi SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vivendi SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vivendi SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vivendi SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Vivendi SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vivendi SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vivendi SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.