Nuveen Mortgage Opportunity Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 24.28
| XJLSX Fund | USD 19.31 0.11 0.57% |
Nuveen |
Nuveen Mortgage Target Price Odds to finish below 24.28
The tendency of Nuveen Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 24.28 after 90 days |
| 19.31 | 90 days | 24.28 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nuveen Mortgage to stay under $ 24.28 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Nuveen Mortgage Opportunity probability density function shows the probability of Nuveen Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nuveen Mortgage Oppo price to stay between its current price of $ 19.31 and $ 24.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.94 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Nuveen Mortgage has a beta of 0.11. This entails as returns on the market go up, Nuveen Mortgage average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Nuveen Mortgage Opportunity will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Nuveen Mortgage Opportunity has an alpha of 0.0095, implying that it can generate a 0.009497 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Nuveen Mortgage Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Nuveen Mortgage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nuveen Mortgage Oppo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nuveen Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nuveen Mortgage Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nuveen Mortgage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nuveen Mortgage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nuveen Mortgage Opportunity, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nuveen Mortgage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
Nuveen Mortgage Technical Analysis
Nuveen Mortgage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nuveen Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nuveen Mortgage Opportunity. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nuveen Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nuveen Mortgage Predictive Forecast Models
Nuveen Mortgage's time-series forecasting models is one of many Nuveen Mortgage's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nuveen Mortgage's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nuveen Mortgage in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nuveen Mortgage's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nuveen Mortgage options trading.
Check out Nuveen Mortgage Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Nuveen Mortgage Correlation, Nuveen Mortgage Hype Analysis, Nuveen Mortgage Volatility, Nuveen Mortgage History as well as Nuveen Mortgage Performance. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nuveen Mortgage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nuveen Mortgage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nuveen Mortgage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.