YPF SA (Argentina) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 617.45
| YPFD Stock | ARS 20,468 298.25 1.44% |
YPF |
YPF SA Target Price Odds to finish over 617.45
The tendency of YPF Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 617.45 in 90 days |
| 20,468 | 90 days | 617.45 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of YPF SA to stay above 617.45 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This YPF SA D probability density function shows the probability of YPF Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of YPF SA D price to stay between 617.45 and its current price of 20468.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.08 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.02 . This entails YPF SA D market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, YPF SA is expected to follow. Additionally YPF SA D has an alpha of 0.0834, implying that it can generate a 0.0834 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). YPF SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for YPF SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as YPF SA D. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of YPF SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
YPF SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. YPF SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the YPF SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold YPF SA D, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of YPF SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1,471 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
YPF SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of YPF SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for YPF SA D can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| YPF SA D generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 51.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
YPF SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of YPF Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential YPF SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. YPF SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 393.3 M |
YPF SA Technical Analysis
YPF SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. YPF Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of YPF SA D. In general, you should focus on analyzing YPF Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
YPF SA Predictive Forecast Models
YPF SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many YPF SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary YPF SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about YPF SA D
Checking the ongoing alerts about YPF SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for YPF SA D help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| YPF SA D generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 51.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Check out YPF SA Backtesting, YPF SA Valuation, YPF SA Correlation, YPF SA Hype Analysis, YPF SA Volatility, YPF SA History as well as YPF SA Performance. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for YPF Stock analysis
When running YPF SA's price analysis, check to measure YPF SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy YPF SA is operating at the current time. Most of YPF SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of YPF SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move YPF SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of YPF SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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