Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy

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    Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

    For stocks, Probability Of Bankruptcy is normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100 indicating the actual probability the firm will be distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
    Alcoa 
    Probability Of Bankruptcy 
     = 
    Normalized 
     
    Z-Score 
     = 
    1 %

    Distress Driver Correlations

    About Probability Of Bankruptcy

    Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12 or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty to meet its current financial obligations towards its creditors or to deliver on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions on a daily bases from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns including short term and long term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenues patterns, RND expenses, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
    Compare to competition

    Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Assessment

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    Operating Margin

    EBITDA Margin

    Gross Margin

    Based on latest financial disclosure Alcoa Inc has Probability Of Bankruptcy of 1.0%. This is much higher than that of the Primary Production sector, and significantly higher than that of Non-ferrous Metals Production And Products industry, The Probability Of Bankruptcy for all stocks is over 1000% lower than the firm.

    Peer Comparison

    Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Comparison
      Probability Of Bankruptcy 
          Alcoa Comparables 
    Alcoa is rated below average in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

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    Return On Equity23.80 %
    Return On Asset(0.05) %
    Profit Margin(0.08) %
    Operating Margin4.31 %
    Current Valuation20.47 B
    Shares Outstanding184.24 M
    Shares Owned by Insiders0.13 %
    Shares Owned by Institutions62.50 %
    Number of Shares Shorted5.01 M
    Price to Earning177.20 times
    Price to Book1.01 times
    Price to Sales0.62 times
    Revenue11.2 B
    Gross Profit2.16 B
    EBITDA1.45 B
    Net Income(863 M)
    Cash and Equivalents557 M
    Cash per Share1.32 times
    Total Debt225 M
    Debt to Equity0.16 times
    Current Ratio1.64 times
    Book Value Per Share31.89 times
    Cash Flow from Operations875 M
    Short Ratio1.03 times
    Earnings Per Share0.19 times
    Price to Earnings To Growth(0.21) times
    Number of Employees16 K
    Beta0.69
    Market Capitalization6.07 B
    Total Asset16.41 B
    Retained Earnings8.83 B
    Working Capital162 M
    Current Asset2.57 B
    Current Liabilities2.4 B
    Z Score15.6