Probability Of Bankruptcy

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis lookup allows users to check a given indicator for any equity or select from a set of available indicators by clicking on the link to the right. Please note, not all equities are covered by this module due to inconsistencies in global equity categorizations. Please check also Equity Screeners to view more equity screening tools
Symbol
Refresh

Asset symbol is not found or was delisted: AFLYY.PK

We are unable to locate AFLYY.PK Probability-Of-Bankruptcy at this time. If you believe the symbol you are trying to look up is valid please let us know and we will check it out.

Indicator Description

Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12 or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty to meet its current financial obligations towards its creditors or to deliver on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions on a daily bases from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns including short term and long term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenues patterns, R&D expenses and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.

Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 

For stocks, Probability Of Bankruptcy is normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100 indicating the actual probability the firm will be distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.

Probability Of Bankruptcy In A Nutshell

When looking at the probability of bankruptcy, you want to ensure there is a normalized z-score, which means you do not want the data to be too far from the mean, which is what the z-score measures. When looking at this data point, the probability of bankruptcy is a value between 0 and 100, which will tell you the probability of the company having financial distress in the next 2 years. This is very important to consider because you do not want to invest in a company that is potentially going under.

This data point is certainly a complicated one because you can look at it in either a statistical light or a matter of fact light. When you look at a company that is struggling, you can certainly tell by just how things are and by something simple as cash flow if they are going to succeed. Benjamin Graham, the most well known person of value investing searched for these types of distressed companies, but that is a story for another day. As stated here on Macroaxis, probability of bankruptcy should not be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for bankruptcy protection.

Closer Look at Probability Of Bankruptcy

Taking it a little bit further, besides the obvious reasons of the company being worth nothing, you can use this tool to help you find value stocks. As alluded too, this is when you look for struggling companies, but the idea is that there is limited to no debt and the company has enough cash to survive the down times. Of course there are other factors, but that is why using the probability of bankruptcy in this scenario may prove useful.

This type of information is purely fundamental and should be used as such. When looking at charts, you may see a stocks price begin to tank and take on pressure, this is a prime time to take a look and run the probability of bankruptcy, to know in the near term if the business is going to viable. There are other items you would want to take a look at such as the executive’s comments and the tone of the room. Listen in on the conference calls and determine what everyone is saying, as this will give you the best feel of where the company is headed. Bankruptcy is a last resort due to the many implications it poses, but do know a company can come close to bankruptcy and still prove to be a winner.

Other Suggestions

Currently Trending

UPL   
 NSE 
Purchased few shares of
few hours ago ago
Traded for 780.0
CRM   
 NYQ 
Purchased over 30 shares of
few hours ago ago
Traded for 94.94
VMW   
 NYQ 
Purchased over 20 shares of
few hours ago ago
Traded for 109.15
VMW   
 NYQ 
Purchased over 20 shares of
few hours ago ago
Traded for 109.15
GOOG   
 NMS 
Purchased few shares of
few hours ago ago
Traded for 928.53