Alon Usa Energy Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
Alon USA's likelihood of distress is above 80% at the moment. It has very high risk of going through financial crisis in the upcoming years. Chance of bankruptcy prediction helps decision makers evaluate Alon USA's chance of financial distress in relation to its going-concern outlook and evaluation. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Alon balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis.
Alon |
Alon USA Energy Company chance of bankruptcy Analysis
Alon USA's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Alon USA Probability Of Bankruptcy | Over 100% |
Most of Alon USA's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Alon USA Energy is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Alon USA probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Alon USA odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Alon USA Energy financial health.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alon USA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alon USA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alon USA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party. The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
CompetitionBased on the latest financial disclosure, Alon USA Energy has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 100%. This is much higher than that of the sector and significantly higher than that of the Probability Of Bankruptcy industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is notably lower than that of the firm.
Alon Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Alon USA's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Alon USA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alon USA by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Alon USA is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
Alon Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.0013 | |||
| Return On Asset | -3.57 | |||
| Profit Margin | (0.0002) % | |||
| Operating Margin | (0.02) % | |||
| Current Valuation | 1.38 B | |||
| Shares Outstanding | 71.53 M | |||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 61.49 % | |||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 54.40 % | |||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.28 M | |||
| Price To Earning | (23.70) X | |||
| Price To Book | 1.76 X | |||
| Price To Sales | 0.23 X | |||
| Revenue | 4.13 B | |||
| Gross Profit | 273.89 M | |||
| EBITDA | 146.56 M | |||
| Net Income | (39.94 M) | |||
| Cash And Equivalents | 186.13 M | |||
| Cash Per Share | 2.60 X | |||
| Total Debt | 517.98 M | |||
| Debt To Equity | 89.10 % | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.01 X | |||
| Book Value Per Share | 6.49 X | |||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 171.35 M | |||
| Short Ratio | 9.79 X | |||
| Earnings Per Share | (0.56) X | |||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.51 X | |||
| Number Of Employees | 2.86 K | |||
| Beta | 1.19 | |||
| Market Capitalization | 952.78 M | |||
| Total Asset | 2.18 B | |||
| Retained Earnings | 18.74 M | |||
| Working Capital | 78.69 M | |||
| Current Asset | 504.62 M | |||
| Current Liabilities | 425.92 M | |||
| Z Score | 1.6 | |||
| Five Year Return | 3.06 % |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alon USA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alon USA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alon USA options trading.
Pair Trading with Alon USA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alon USA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alon USA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Campbell Soup could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Campbell Soup when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Campbell Soup - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Campbell Soup to buy it.
The correlation of Campbell Soup is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Campbell Soup moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Campbell Soup moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Campbell Soup can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Other Consideration for investing in Alon Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Alon USA Energy check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Alon USA's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Cryptocurrency Center Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets |